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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 9.2x - 10.2x | 9.7x |
| Fair Value | $9.58 - $10.78 | $10.17 |
| Upside | -19.8% - -9.8% | -14.9% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 |
| Revenue | 152,871 | 163,481 | 170,406 | 176,427 | 183,912 | 190,688 |
| % Growth | 14.1% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% |
| EBITDA | 104,314 | 107,694 | 110,760 | 114,893 | 112,871 | 116,806 |
| % of Revenue | 68.2% | 65.9% | 65.0% | 65.1% | 61.4% | 61.3% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | |
| EBITDA | 107,694 | 110,760 | 114,893 | 112,871 | 116,806 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (18,333) | (20,802) | (23,893) | (19,738) | (20,393) | |
| EBIT | 89,362 | 89,958 | 91,000 | 93,133 | 96,413 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (26,809) | (26,987) | (27,300) | (27,940) | (28,924) | |
| NOPAT | 60,211 | 62,553 | 62,971 | 63,700 | 65,193 | 67,489 |
| Capital Expenditures | (6,551) | (16,657) | (17,113) | (17,740) | (18,391) | (19,069) |
| NWC Investment | (14,177) | (7,967) | (5,200) | (4,521) | (5,620) | (5,088) |
| (+) D&A | 18,298 | 18,333 | 20,802 | 23,893 | 19,738 | 20,393 |
| Free Cash Flow | 57,781 | 56,261 | 61,459 | 65,332 | 60,920 | 63,725 |
| % Growth | -3% | 9% | 6% | -7% | 5% | |