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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 1.0x - 1.1x | 1.1x |
| Fair Value | $4.94 - $5.57 | $5.25 |
| Upside | 59.4% - 79.8% | 69.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (ZAR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Sep-24 | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 |
| Revenue | 10,061 | 10,001 | 10,894 | 11,527 | 11,931 | 12,169 | 12,413 | 12,661 | 12,914 | 13,173 | 13,436 |
| % Growth | 0.7% | -0.6% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 1,867 | 2,202 | 2,239 | 2,485 | 2,572 | 2,623 | 2,676 | 2,729 | 2,784 | 2,839 | 2,896 |
| % of Revenue | 18.6% | 22.0% | 20.6% | 21.6% | 21.6% | 21.6% | 21.6% | 21.6% | 21.6% | 21.6% | 21.6% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 2,202 | 2,239 | 2,485 | 2,572 | 2,623 | 2,676 | 2,729 | 2,784 | 2,839 | 2,896 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (306) | (311) | (329) | (341) | (347) | (354) | (361) | (369) | (376) | (384) | |
| EBIT | 1,896 | 1,928 | 2,156 | 2,231 | 2,276 | 2,321 | 2,368 | 2,415 | 2,463 | 2,513 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (474) | (482) | (539) | (558) | (569) | (580) | (592) | (604) | (616) | (628) | |
| NOPAT | 1,206 | 1,422 | 1,446 | 1,617 | 1,673 | 1,707 | 1,741 | 1,776 | 1,811 | 1,848 | 1,885 |
| Capital Expenditures | (651) | (550) | (550) | (584) | (604) | (616) | (601) | (607) | (608) | (606) | (607) |
| NWC Investment | (17) | 14 | (207) | (147) | (94) | (55) | (57) | (58) | (59) | (60) | (61) |
| (+) D&A | 259 | 306 | 311 | 329 | 341 | 347 | 354 | 361 | 369 | 376 | 384 |
| Free Cash Flow | 797 | 1,192 | 1,000 | 1,215 | 1,316 | 1,383 | 1,438 | 1,472 | 1,513 | 1,558 | 1,600 |
| % Growth | -16% | 22% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | ||