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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 12.8x - 14.2x | 13.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 11.5x - 12.7x | 12.1x |
| Fair Value | $12.46 - $14.02 | $13.24 |
| Upside | 11.6% - 25.6% | 18.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| AMS Public Transport Holdings Limited | 77 | SEHK:77 |
| Mobico Group Plc | MCG | LSE:MCG |
| Transport International Holdings Limited | 62 | SEHK:62 |
| Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited | 306 | SEHK:306 |
| National United Resources Holdings Limited | 254 | SEHK:254 |
| MTR Corporation Limited | MTCP.Y | OTCPK:MTCP.Y |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 77 | MCG | 62 | 306 | 254 | MTCP.Y | ||
| SEHK:77 | LSE:MCG | SEHK:62 | SEHK:306 | SEHK:254 | OTCPK:MTCP.Y | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 22.4% | -8.3% | 0.2% | 30.9% | -14.5% | 9.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 141.2% | 61.2% | 161.4% | NM- | NM- | 15.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 7.0% | 24.6% | 97.2% | 125.4% | NM | 127.9% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 3.7% | 1.6% | -4.0% | -10.3% | -10.0% | 23.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.0% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 3.9% | -75.4% | 16.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 9.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 34.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 7.3% | 20.8% | 34.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.61x | 0.42x | 0.57x | 0.88x | 1.81x | 3.66x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.6x | 4.2x | 3.1x | 6.1x | 4.3x | 8.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 6.6x | 10.0x | 14.9x | 16.8x | 8.7x | 10.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 6.6x | 10.0x | 16.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 10.5x | 25.4x | 31.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 12.8x | 13.5x | 14.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 20,920 | 20,920 | 20,920 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 268,320 | 282,442 | 296,564 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (41,249) | (41,249) | (41,249) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 227,071 | 241,193 | 255,315 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,219.3 | 2,219.3 | 2,219.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 102.32 | 108.68 | 115.04 | ||||
| FX Rate: HKD/USD | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 13.03 | 13.84 | 14.66 | 11.16 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 16.8% | 24.1% | 31.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 77 | MCG | 62 | 306 | 254 | MTCP.Y | |
| Enterprise Value | 253 | 1,449 | 4,644 | 2,231 | 193 | 235,670 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 68 | 245 | 1,691 | 437 | 153 | 22,229 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 32 | 2,637 | 118 | 0 | 14,845 | |
| (-) Debt | (201) | (1,478) | (4,218) | (1,757) | (228) | (77,815) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (36) | 0 | (94) | 40 | (508) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 120 | 211 | 4,754 | 934 | 158 | 194,421 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 271.9 | 610.3 | 525.9 | 476.8 | 4,387.6 | 2,219.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.44 | 0.35 | 9.04 | 1.96 | 0.04 | 87.60 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.85 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 0.44 | 0.35 | 9.04 | 1.96 | 0.04 | 11.16 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | GBP | HKD | HKD | HKD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.85 | |