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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 1.0x - 1.1x | 1.1x |
| Fair Value | $54.71 - $60.04 | $57.30 |
| Upside | 57.2% - 72.5% | 64.6% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 |
| Revenue | 5,257,914 | 4,720,000 | 5,638,200 | 5,871,682 | 6,098,497 | 6,356,000 | 6,483,120 | 6,612,782 | 6,745,038 | 6,879,939 | 7,017,538 |
| % Growth | 5.1% | -10.2% | 19.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 529,354 | 628,000 | 666,800 | 742,500 | 899,000 | 992,000 | 1,011,840 | 1,032,077 | 1,052,718 | 1,073,773 | 1,095,248 |
| % of Revenue | 10.1% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 14.7% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 15.6% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 628,000 | 666,800 | 742,500 | 899,000 | 992,000 | 1,011,840 | 1,032,077 | 1,052,718 | 1,073,773 | 1,095,248 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (218,000) | (224,800) | (243,990) | (334,000) | (405,000) | (413,100) | (421,362) | (429,789) | (438,385) | (447,153) | |
| EBIT | 410,000 | 442,000 | 498,510 | 565,000 | 587,000 | 598,740 | 610,715 | 622,929 | 635,388 | 648,095 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (86,100) | (92,820) | (104,687) | (118,650) | (123,270) | (125,735) | (128,250) | (130,815) | (133,431) | (136,100) | |
| NOPAT | 259,535 | 323,900 | 349,180 | 393,823 | 446,350 | 463,730 | 473,005 | 482,465 | 492,114 | 501,956 | 511,995 |
| Capital Expenditures | (175,756) | (232,000) | (248,537) | (250,000) | (219,280) | (226,638) | (231,171) | (225,696) | (227,835) | (228,234) | (227,255) |
| NWC Investment | (58,057) | 122,846 | (209,693) | (53,321) | (51,799) | (58,807) | (29,031) | (29,612) | (30,204) | (30,808) | (31,424) |
| (+) D&A | 200,829 | 218,000 | 224,800 | 243,990 | 334,000 | 405,000 | 413,100 | 421,362 | 429,789 | 438,385 | 447,153 |
| Free Cash Flow | 226,550 | 432,746 | 115,750 | 334,491 | 509,272 | 583,285 | 625,903 | 648,519 | 663,864 | 681,299 | 700,469 |
| % Growth | -73% | 189% | 52% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | ||