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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 4.9x - 6.9x | 5.9x |
| Fair Value | $43.37 - $54.25 | $48.72 |
| Upside | 19.3% - 49.2% | 34.0% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 |
| Revenue | 5,257,914 | 4,720,000 | 5,638,200 | 5,871,682 | 6,098,497 | 6,356,000 |
| % Growth | 5.1% | -10.2% | 19.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% |
| EBITDA | 529,354 | 628,000 | 666,800 | 742,500 | 899,000 | 992,000 |
| % of Revenue | 10.1% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 14.7% | 15.6% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | |
| EBITDA | 628,000 | 666,800 | 742,500 | 899,000 | 992,000 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (218,000) | (224,800) | (243,990) | (334,000) | (405,000) | |
| EBIT | 410,000 | 442,000 | 498,510 | 565,000 | 587,000 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (86,100) | (92,820) | (104,687) | (118,650) | (123,270) | |
| NOPAT | 259,535 | 323,900 | 349,180 | 393,823 | 446,350 | 463,730 |
| Capital Expenditures | (175,756) | (232,000) | (248,537) | (250,000) | (219,280) | (226,638) |
| NWC Investment | (58,057) | 122,846 | (209,693) | (53,321) | (51,799) | (58,807) |
| (+) D&A | 200,829 | 218,000 | 224,800 | 243,990 | 334,000 | 405,000 |
| Free Cash Flow | 226,550 | 432,746 | 115,750 | 334,491 | 509,272 | 583,285 |
| % Growth | 91% | -73% | 189% | 52% | 15% | |