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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.3% - 7.2% | 7.8% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 1.3x - 1.5x | 1.4x |
| Fair Value | $14.70 - $17.48 | $16.04 |
| Upside | 14.4% - 36.0% | 24.9% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 2,338,385 | 2,425,220 | 2,444,534 | 2,503,600 | 2,505,000 | 2,544,000 | 2,544,000 | 2,544,000 | 2,544,000 | 2,544,000 | 2,544,000 |
| % Growth | 9.6% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | 286,156 | 320,000 | 336,650 | 353,000 | 374,800 | 391,100 | 391,100 | 391,100 | 391,100 | 391,100 | 391,100 |
| % of Revenue | 12.2% | 13.2% | 13.8% | 14.1% | 15.0% | 15.4% | 15.4% | 15.4% | 15.4% | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 320,000 | 336,650 | 353,000 | 374,800 | 391,100 | 391,100 | 391,100 | 391,100 | 391,100 | 391,100 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (125,000) | (122,100) | (122,000) | (123,050) | (117,950) | (117,950) | (117,950) | (117,950) | (117,950) | (117,950) | |
| EBIT | 195,000 | 214,550 | 231,000 | 251,750 | 273,150 | 273,150 | 273,150 | 273,150 | 273,150 | 273,150 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (54,600) | (60,074) | (64,680) | (70,490) | (76,482) | (76,482) | (76,482) | (76,482) | (76,482) | (76,482) | |
| NOPAT | 137,127 | 140,400 | 154,476 | 166,320 | 181,260 | 196,668 | 196,668 | 196,668 | 196,668 | 196,668 | 196,668 |
| Capital Expenditures | (180,584) | (156,350) | (130,000) | (130,000) | (129,250) | (129,250) | (129,250) | (129,250) | (129,250) | (129,250) | (129,250) |
| NWC Investment | (24,809) | (10,561) | (2,349) | (7,183) | (170) | (4,743) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 95,702 | 125,000 | 122,100 | 122,000 | 123,050 | 117,950 | 117,950 | 117,950 | 117,950 | 117,950 | 117,950 |
| Free Cash Flow | 27,436 | 98,489 | 144,227 | 151,137 | 174,890 | 180,625 | 185,368 | 185,368 | 185,368 | 185,368 | 185,368 |
| % Growth | 46% | 5% | 16% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||