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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 3.1x - 3.5x | 3.3x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3.6x - 4.0x | 3.8x |
| Fair Value | $6.71 - $7.35 | $7.03 |
| Upside | 13.1% - 23.8% | 18.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Rio Tinto Group | RIO | LSE:RIO |
| Iluka Resources Limited | ILKA.F | OTCPK:ILKA.F |
| The Chemours Company | 0HWG | LSE:0HWG |
| Tronox Holdings plc | T5X | DB:T5X |
| Fresnillo plc | FRES | LSE:FRES |
| Kenmare Resources plc | KMRP.F | OTCPK:KMRP.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| RIO | ILKA.F | 0HWG | T5X | FRES | KMRP.F | ||
| LSE:RIO | OTCPK:ILKA.F | LSE:0HWG | DB:T5X | LSE:FRES | OTCPK:KMRP.F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 0.0% | -1.5% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 13.6% | 18.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -17.5% | -8.7% | -9.7% | -16.9% | 4.1% | 42.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -2.0% | -17.4% | -24.3% | 9.5% | 107.1% | -43.0% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 43.3% | 46.4% | 15.1% | 20.8% | 37.4% | 43.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 36.0% | 47.2% | 16.1% | 16.2% | 24.1% | 56.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 35.5% | 43.0% | 12.8% | 16.4% | 38.6% | 48.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 35.5% | 43.0% | 12.8% | 16.4% | 38.6% | 45.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.04x | 1.29x | 0.97x | 1.31x | 2.50x | 1.36x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.8x | 3.0x | 7.6x | 7.9x | 6.5x | 3.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 7.8x | 5.3x | 12.7x | 18.2x | 11.9x | 4.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.0x | 6.5x | 7.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.5x | 3.8x | 6.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.1x | 3.3x | 3.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 173 | 173 | 173 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 542 | 571 | 599 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 59 | 59 | 59 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 601 | 629 | 658 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 89.2 | 89.2 | 89.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 6.73 | 7.05 | 7.37 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6.73 | 7.05 | 7.37 | 5.94 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 13.4% | 18.8% | 24.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | RIO | ILKA.F | 0HWG | T5X | FRES | KMRP.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 104,891 | 1,912 | 5,546 | 3,998 | 8,731 | 471 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 8,865 | 136 | 713 | 151 | 1,298 | 60 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 5,355 | 454 | 152 | 0 | 140 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (14,222) | (291) | (4,355) | (2,990) | (853) | (1) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (2,719) | 0 | (1) | (30) | (355) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 102,170 | 2,210 | 2,055 | 1,129 | 8,961 | 530 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,624.6 | 525.7 | 149.4 | 157.9 | 736.9 | 89.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 62.89 | 4.21 | 13.75 | 7.15 | 12.16 | 5.94 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.29 | 1.59 | 1.00 | 1.08 | 1.29 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 48.80 | 2.65 | 13.75 | 6.65 | 9.44 | 5.94 | |
| Trading Currency | GBP | USD | USD | EUR | GBP | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.29 | 1.59 | 1.00 | 1.08 | 1.29 | 1.00 | |