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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 2.8x - 3.1x | 3.0x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 2.5x - 2.7x | 2.6x |
| Fair Value | $6 - $7.76 | $6.88 |
| Upside | -11.2% - 14.8% | 1.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Suzano S.A. | SUZB3 | BOVESPA:SUZB3 |
| Billerud AB (publ) | BLRD.Y | OTCPK:BLRD.Y |
| Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG | MNHF.F | OTCPK:MNHF.F |
| Packaging Corporation of America | P1KG34 | BOVESPA:P1KG34 |
| International Paper Company | I1PC34 | BOVESPA:I1PC34 |
| Klabin S.A. | KLBA.Y | OTCPK:KLBA.Y |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| SUZB3 | BLRD.Y | MNHF.F | P1KG34 | I1PC34 | KLBA.Y | |||
| BOVESPA:SUZB3 | OTCPK:BLRD.Y | OTCPK:MNHF.F | BOVESPA:P1KG34 | BOVESPA:I1PC34 | OTCPK:KLBA.Y | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 12.8% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 0.3% | 13.8% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 5.0% | 18.2% | 9.9% | 2.7% | -1.3% | 6.0% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 19.2% | 5.3% | -2.0% | 7.4% | -1.6% | 9.0% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 32.7% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 15.1% | 7.8% | 19.8% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 27.0% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 14.4% | 6.2% | 16.6% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 30.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 13.8% | 5.2% | 17.3% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 30.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 13.8% | 5.2% | 17.3% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 3.18x | 0.71x | 0.73x | 2.36x | 1.78x | 3.01x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 10.3x | 15.8x | 15.7x | 17.1x | 34.2x | 17.4x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 1.39x | 0.61x | 0.39x | 2.13x | 1.52x | 1.17x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.71x | 1.78x | 3.18x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 2.41x | 3.01x | 4.53x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 2.83x | 2.98x | 3.13x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 19,646 | 19,646 | 19,646 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 55,679 | 58,609 | 61,540 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (35,896) | (35,896) | (35,896) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 19,783 | 22,714 | 25,644 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 590.8 | 590.8 | 590.8 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 33.49 | 38.45 | 43.41 | |||||
| FX Rate: BRL/USD | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 5.88 | 6.75 | 7.62 | 6.76 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -13.0% | -0.2% | 12.7% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | SUZB3 | BLRD.Y | MNHF.F | P1KG34 | I1PC34 | KLBA.Y | |
| Enterprise Value | 151,133 | 32,698 | 2,707 | 25,047 | 32,932 | 58,644 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 21,990 | 2,561 | 520 | 787 | 1,170 | 7,530 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,591 | 952 | 0 | 65 | 160 | 122 | |
| (-) Debt | (108,408) | (7,966) | (1,900) | (2,772) | (6,009) | (41,562) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (131) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1,985) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 66,176 | 28,245 | 1,327 | 23,128 | 28,253 | 22,748 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,239.2 | 137.8 | 20.0 | 186.5 | 526.1 | 590.8 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 53.40 | 204.92 | 66.36 | 124.02 | 53.70 | 38.51 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 9.90 | 0.92 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 5.70 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 53.40 | 20.70 | 72.00 | 706.46 | 305.88 | 6.76 | |
| Trading Currency | BRL | USD | USD | BRL | BRL | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 9.90 | 0.92 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 5.70 | |