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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 4.7x - 6.7x | 5.7x |
| Fair Value | $6.44 - $7.65 | $7.02 |
| Upside | 51.5% - 80.0% | 65.2% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (CAD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 371 | 398 | 434 | 460 | 493 | 536 | 592 | 636 | 658 | 671 | 685 |
| % Growth | 13.1% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 56 | 51 | 59 | 67 | 73 | 85 | 102 | 112 | 116 | 119 | 121 |
| % of Revenue | 15.1% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 14.5% | 14.8% | 15.9% | 17.2% | 17.7% | 17.7% | 17.7% | 17.7% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (CAD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| EBITDA | 51 | 59 | 67 | 73 | 85 | 102 | 112 | 116 | 119 | 121 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (11) | (1) | (52) | (56) | (66) | (72) | (78) | (81) | (82) | (84) | |
| EBIT | 41 | 58 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 29 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 37 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (8) | (11) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
| NOPAT | 6 | 33 | 47 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 24 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 30 |
| Capital Expenditures | (2) | (0) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) |
| NWC Investment | (16) | (10) | (13) | (10) | (12) | (15) | (20) | (16) | (8) | (5) | (5) |
| (+) D&A | 49 | 11 | 1 | 52 | 56 | 66 | 72 | 78 | 81 | 82 | 84 |
| Free Cash Flow | 36 | 34 | 25 | 44 | 47 | 56 | 66 | 80 | 91 | 97 | 99 |
| % Growth | -8% | -26% | 79% | 7% | 18% | 18% | 21% | 15% | 6% | 2% | |