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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 7.8% - 6.7% | 7.2% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 1.8x - 2.0x | 1.9x |
| Fair Value | $16.10 - $18.31 | $17.19 |
| Upside | -8.0% - 4.6% | -1.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 |
| Revenue | 5,754,047 | 5,877,000 | 6,023,000 | 6,161,000 | 6,223,000 | 6,232,000 |
| % Growth | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| EBITDA | 1,621,993 | 1,808,550 | 1,873,580 | 1,923,946 | 1,983,000 | 2,005,000 |
| % of Revenue | 28.2% | 30.8% | 31.1% | 31.2% | 31.9% | 32.2% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | |
| EBITDA | 1,808,550 | 1,873,580 | 1,923,946 | 1,983,000 | 2,005,000 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (894,495) | (698,445) | (701,063) | (687,500) | (675,000) | |
| EBIT | 914,055 | 1,175,135 | 1,222,883 | 1,295,500 | 1,330,000 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (292,498) | (376,043) | (391,323) | (414,560) | (425,600) | |
| NOPAT | 635,558 | 621,557 | 799,092 | 831,561 | 880,940 | 904,400 |
| Capital Expenditures | (523,940) | (557,977) | (691,420) | (724,327) | (652,000) | (686,277) |
| NWC Investment | 31,237 | 46,676 | 55,425 | 52,388 | 23,537 | 3,417 |
| (+) D&A | 687,349 | 894,495 | 698,445 | 701,063 | 687,500 | 675,000 |
| Free Cash Flow | 830,204 | 1,004,751 | 861,541 | 860,685 | 939,977 | 896,540 |
| % Growth | 21% | -14% | 0% | 9% | -5% | |