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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 7.8% - 6.7% | 7.2% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 6.9x - 8.9x | 7.9x |
| Fair Value | $18.08 - $23.21 | $20.55 |
| Upside | 1.6% - 30.4% | 15.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
| Revenue | 5,917,953 | 5,877,000 | 6,054,000 | 6,169,243 | 6,363,200 | 6,232,000 | 6,232,000 | 6,232,000 | 6,232,000 | 6,232,000 | 6,232,000 |
| % Growth | 2.8% | -0.7% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 3.1% | -2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | 1,777,960 | 1,808,550 | 1,872,896 | 1,931,217 | 2,011,000 | 1,987,491 | 1,987,491 | 1,987,491 | 1,987,491 | 1,987,491 | 1,987,491 |
| % of Revenue | 30.0% | 30.8% | 30.9% | 31.3% | 31.6% | 31.9% | 31.9% | 31.9% | 31.9% | 31.9% | 31.9% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 | |
| EBITDA | 1,808,550 | 1,872,896 | 1,931,217 | 2,011,000 | 1,987,491 | 1,987,491 | 1,987,491 | 1,987,491 | 1,987,491 | 1,987,491 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (894,495) | (689,396) | (706,217) | (735,061) | (657,491) | (657,491) | (657,491) | (657,491) | (657,491) | (657,491) | |
| EBIT | 914,055 | 1,183,500 | 1,225,000 | 1,275,939 | 1,330,000 | 1,330,000 | 1,330,000 | 1,330,000 | 1,330,000 | 1,330,000 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (292,498) | (378,720) | (392,000) | (408,300) | (425,600) | (425,600) | (425,600) | (425,600) | (425,600) | (425,600) | |
| NOPAT | 741,997 | 621,557 | 804,780 | 833,000 | 867,638 | 904,400 | 904,400 | 904,400 | 904,400 | 904,400 | 904,400 |
| Capital Expenditures | (400,947) | (557,977) | (650,000) | (729,600) | (720,092) | (686,277) | (686,277) | (686,277) | (686,277) | (686,277) | (686,277) |
| NWC Investment | 63,772 | (15,934) | 68,867 | 44,839 | 75,465 | (51,047) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 686,788 | 894,495 | 689,396 | 706,217 | 735,061 | 657,491 | 657,491 | 657,491 | 657,491 | 657,491 | 657,491 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,091,610 | 942,141 | 913,043 | 854,456 | 958,072 | 824,567 | 875,615 | 875,615 | 875,615 | 875,615 | 875,615 |
| % Growth | -14% | -3% | -6% | 12% | -14% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |