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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 3.0x - 5.0x | 4.0x |
| Fair Value | $15.11 - $22.38 | $18.68 |
| Upside | -12.0% - 30.3% | 8.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 |
| Revenue | 225,781 | 224,000 | 238,300 | 246,918 | 250,422 | 256,895 |
| % Growth | -4.3% | -0.8% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 2.6% |
| EBITDA | 35,062 | 37,100 | 39,904 | 42,916 | 44,220 | 45,214 |
| % of Revenue | 15.5% | 16.6% | 16.7% | 17.4% | 17.7% | 17.6% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | |
| EBITDA | 37,100 | 39,904 | 42,916 | 44,220 | 45,214 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (21,400) | (21,462) | (22,024) | (21,636) | (21,640) | |
| EBIT | 15,700 | 18,442 | 20,892 | 22,584 | 23,574 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (3,925) | (4,610) | (5,223) | (5,646) | (5,894) | |
| NOPAT | 10,818 | 11,775 | 13,831 | 15,669 | 16,938 | 17,681 |
| Capital Expenditures | (20,370) | (20,500) | (21,575) | (21,575) | (21,650) | (21,650) |
| NWC Investment | 1,470 | 260 | (2,084) | (1,256) | (511) | (944) |
| (+) D&A | 20,638 | 21,400 | 21,462 | 22,024 | 21,636 | 21,640 |
| Free Cash Flow | 12,556 | 12,935 | 11,634 | 14,862 | 16,413 | 16,727 |
| % Growth | 3% | -10% | 28% | 10% | 2% | |