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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9.0x - 9.9x | 9.5x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6.0x - 6.7x | 6.4x |
Fair Value | $8.16 - $9.97 | $9.07 |
Upside | 0.5% - 22.7% | 11.6% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Rubis | RUI | ENXTPA:RUI |
Terna S.p.A. | TRN | BIT:TRN |
ACEA S.p.A. | ACE | BIT:ACE |
Enel SpA | ENEL | BIT:ENEL |
Hera S.p.A. | HER | BIT:HER |
Italgas S.p.A. | ITGG.F | OTCPK:ITGG.F |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
RUI | TRN | ACE | ENEL | HER | ITGG.F | ||
ENXTPA:RUI | BIT:TRN | BIT:ACE | BIT:ENEL | BIT:HER | OTCPK:ITGG.F | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 5.8% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | |
3Y CAGR | 9.7% | 11.4% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -16.1% | 12.9% | 5.3% | -2.3% | 9.0% | 11.2% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 11.1% | 70.2% | 26.7% | 19.3% | 9.2% | 47.9% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 12.7% | 67.6% | 25.7% | 19.3% | 8.4% | 45.1% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 10.7% | 69.2% | 30.6% | 24.5% | 10.2% | 50.7% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 10.7% | 69.0% | 30.4% | 23.6% | 9.5% | 52.2% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.69x | 7.87x | 2.29x | 2.00x | 0.75x | 4.78x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.4x | 11.4x | 7.5x | 8.5x | 7.8x | 9.1x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 9.0x | 17.1x | 15.8x | 11.3x | 12.5x | 14.7x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.4x | 7.8x | 11.4x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.5x | 9.3x | 11.4x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.0x | 9.5x | 9.9x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 1,343 | 1,343 | 1,343 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 12,072 | 12,708 | 13,343 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (6,413) | (6,413) | (6,413) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 5,659 | 6,295 | 6,930 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 811.8 | 811.8 | 811.8 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 6.97 | 7.75 | 8.54 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/USD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 7.92 | 8.80 | 9.69 | 8.12 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -2.5% | 8.4% | 19.4% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | RUI | TRN | ACE | ENEL | HER | ITGG.F | |
Enterprise Value | 4,553 | 29,115 | 9,638 | 156,533 | 10,408 | 12,219 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 676 | 3,096 | 342 | 8,368 | 1,855 | 2,573 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 83 | 0 | 505 | 2,809 | 183 | 510 | |
(-) Debt | (2,226) | (14,223) | (5,607) | (69,978) | (5,986) | (9,150) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (128) | (20) | (376) | (15,632) | (319) | (346) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 2,958 | 17,968 | 4,502 | 82,100 | 6,141 | 5,806 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 103.1 | 2,005.8 | 212.5 | 10,154.6 | 1,404.7 | 811.8 | |
Implied Stock Price | 28.68 | 8.96 | 21.18 | 8.09 | 4.37 | 7.15 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.88 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 28.68 | 8.96 | 21.18 | 8.09 | 4.37 | 8.12 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | USD | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.88 |