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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.0% - 9.0% | 9.5% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 9.8x - 11.8x | 10.8x |
Fair Value | $33.27 - $40.53 | $36.78 |
Upside | 11.7% - 36.0% | 23.4% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 6,650 | 7,116 | 7,167 | 6,686 | 6,686 | 6,686 | 6,686 | 6,686 | 6,686 | 6,686 | 6,686 |
% Growth | 12.2% | 7.0% | 0.7% | -6.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EBITDA | 1,858 | 2,464 | 2,523 | 2,117 | 2,117 | 2,117 | 2,117 | 2,117 | 2,117 | 2,117 | 2,117 |
% of Revenue | 27.9% | 34.6% | 35.2% | 31.7% | 31.7% | 31.7% | 31.7% | 31.7% | 31.7% | 31.7% | 31.7% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 2,464 | 2,523 | 2,117 | 2,117 | 2,117 | 2,117 | 2,117 | 2,117 | 2,117 | 2,117 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (728) | (838) | (632) | (632) | (632) | (632) | (632) | (632) | (632) | (632) | |
EBIT | 1,736 | 1,684 | 1,486 | 1,486 | 1,486 | 1,486 | 1,486 | 1,486 | 1,486 | 1,486 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (555) | (539) | (475) | (475) | (475) | (475) | (475) | (475) | (475) | (475) | |
NOPAT | 728 | 1,180 | 1,145 | 1,010 | 1,010 | 1,010 | 1,010 | 1,010 | 1,010 | 1,010 | 1,010 |
Capital Expenditures | (446) | (632) | (692) | (655) | (659) | (669) | (661) | (661) | (661) | (661) | (661) |
NWC Investment | (230) | (148) | (16) | 153 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
(+) D&A | 788 | 728 | 838 | 632 | 632 | 632 | 632 | 632 | 632 | 632 | 632 |
Free Cash Flow | 840 | 1,129 | 1,275 | 1,140 | 983 | 973 | 981 | 981 | 981 | 981 | 981 |
% Growth | 34% | 13% | -11% | -14% | -1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |