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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | -7.4x - -8.2x | -7.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 11.0x - 12.2x | 11.6x |
| Fair Value | $5.74 - $7.66 | $6.70 |
| Upside | -41.9% - -22.4% | -32.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Canfor Corporation | CFP | TSX:CFP |
| GreenFirst Forest Products Inc. | GFP | TSX:GFP |
| Canfor Pulp Products Inc. | CFX | TSX:CFX |
| Conifex Timber Inc. | CFF | TSX:CFF |
| Stella-Jones Inc. | SJ | TSX:SJ |
| Interfor Corporation | IFSP.F | OTCPK:IFSP.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| CFP | GFP | CFX | CFF | SJ | IFSP.F | ||
| TSX:CFP | TSX:GFP | TSX:CFX | TSX:CFF | TSX:SJ | OTCPK:IFSP.F | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | 16.4% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | -65.5% | NM- | NM- | 16.7% | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -6.6% | 100.5% | 83.7% | 33.2% | 2.4% | -14.1% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.5% | -3.8% | -5.6% | -5.1% | 13.0% | 12.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -9.7% | -13.3% | -14.8% | -27.4% | 15.2% | -4.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -10.7% | 0.1% | -2.6% | -20.2% | 14.9% | -5.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -10.7% | 0.1% | -2.6% | -20.2% | 14.9% | -5.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.40x | 0.25x | 0.16x | 0.56x | 1.54x | 0.53x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -12.5x | 4.4x | 3.5x | -4.6x | 9.3x | 53.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -3.8x | 359.3x | -6.2x | -2.8x | 10.3x | -9.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -6.2x | -2.8x | 359.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -13.6x | 1.2x | 7.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | -7.4x | -7.8x | -8.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | (167) | (167) | (167) | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,244 | 1,309 | 1,375 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (892) | (892) | (892) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 351 | 417 | 482 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 51.5 | 51.5 | 51.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 6.83 | 8.10 | 9.37 | ||||
| FX Rate: CAD/USD | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 4.93 | 5.85 | 6.77 | 9.88 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -50.1% | -40.8% | -31.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | CFP | GFP | CFX | CFF | SJ | IFSP.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,119 | 70 | 130 | 72 | 5,337 | 1,596 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 259 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 50 | 43 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 117 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 21 | 15 | |
| (-) Debt | (704) | (22) | (100) | (77) | (1,703) | (951) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (272) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,519 | 78 | 46 | 14 | 3,705 | 704 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 118.2 | 22.6 | 65.2 | 40.8 | 55.7 | 51.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 12.86 | 3.43 | 0.70 | 0.35 | 66.54 | 13.68 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.38 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 12.86 | 3.43 | 0.70 | 0.35 | 66.54 | 9.88 | |
| Trading Currency | CAD | CAD | CAD | CAD | CAD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.38 | |