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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 0.2x - 0.3x | 0.3x |
| Fair Value | $4.23 - $4.44 | $4.33 |
| Upside | 36.4% - 43.1% | 39.7% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 92,746 | 102,697 | 112,042 | 125,135 | 134,521 | 139,229 |
| % Growth | 8.3% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 3.5% |
| EBITDA | 5,402 | 7,356 | 8,477 | 8,801 | 10,806 | 11,184 |
| % of Revenue | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 7,356 | 8,477 | 8,801 | 10,806 | 11,184 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (544) | (842) | (1,698) | (1,825) | (1,889) | |
| EBIT | 6,812 | 7,635 | 7,103 | 8,981 | 9,295 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (1,226) | (1,374) | (1,279) | (1,617) | (1,673) | |
| NOPAT | 3,565 | 5,586 | 6,261 | 5,825 | 7,364 | 7,622 |
| Capital Expenditures | (1,394) | (893) | (802) | (1,857) | (1,996) | (2,066) |
| NWC Investment | 1,471 | 2,049 | 1,924 | 2,696 | 1,932 | 969 |
| (+) D&A | 1,054 | 544 | 842 | 1,698 | 1,825 | 1,889 |
| Free Cash Flow | 4,696 | 7,286 | 8,225 | 8,361 | 9,126 | 8,414 |
| % Growth | 55% | 13% | 2% | 9% | -8% | |