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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 0.3x - 0.3x | 0.3x |
| Fair Value | $5.19 - $5.49 | $5.33 |
| Upside | 67.3% - 77.0% | 72.0% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 92,746 | 102,697 | 112,042 | 125,135 | 134,521 | 139,229 | 142,013 | 144,854 | 147,751 | 150,706 | 153,720 |
| % Growth | 8.3% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 5,402 | 7,356 | 8,477 | 8,801 | 10,806 | 11,184 | 11,408 | 11,636 | 11,869 | 12,106 | 12,348 |
| % of Revenue | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 7,356 | 8,477 | 8,801 | 10,806 | 11,184 | 11,408 | 11,636 | 11,869 | 12,106 | 12,348 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (544) | (842) | (1,698) | (1,825) | (1,889) | (1,927) | (1,965) | (2,005) | (2,045) | (2,086) | |
| EBIT | 6,812 | 7,635 | 7,103 | 8,981 | 9,295 | 9,481 | 9,671 | 9,864 | 10,062 | 10,263 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (1,226) | (1,374) | (1,279) | (1,617) | (1,673) | (1,707) | (1,741) | (1,776) | (1,811) | (1,847) | |
| NOPAT | 3,565 | 5,586 | 6,261 | 5,825 | 7,364 | 7,622 | 7,775 | 7,930 | 8,089 | 8,250 | 8,415 |
| Capital Expenditures | (1,394) | (893) | (802) | (1,857) | (1,996) | (2,066) | (1,973) | (2,012) | (2,017) | (2,001) | (2,010) |
| NWC Investment | 1,471 | 2,049 | 1,924 | 2,696 | 1,932 | 969 | 573 | 585 | 596 | 608 | 621 |
| (+) D&A | 1,054 | 544 | 842 | 1,698 | 1,825 | 1,889 | 1,927 | 1,965 | 2,005 | 2,045 | 2,086 |
| Free Cash Flow | 4,696 | 7,286 | 8,225 | 8,361 | 9,126 | 8,414 | 8,302 | 8,468 | 8,673 | 8,903 | 9,112 |
| % Growth | 13% | 2% | 9% | -8% | -1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | ||