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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8.8x - 9.7x | 9.3x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7.0x - 7.7x | 7.4x |
| Fair Value | $23.32 - $26.21 | $24.77 |
| Upside | 17.2% - 31.7% | 24.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| AstraZeneca PLC | AZN | LSE:AZN |
| Merck KGaA | 14 | LSE:0O14 |
| Sandoz Group AG | 0SAN | LSE:0SAN |
| UCB SA | 0NZT | LSE:0NZT |
| Shionogi & Co., Ltd. | SGIO.F | OTCPK:SGIO.F |
| GSK plc | GLAX.F | OTCPK:GLAX.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| AZN | 14 | 0SAN | 0NZT | SGIO.F | GLAX.F | ||
| LSE:AZN | LSE:0O14 | LSE:0SAN | LSE:0NZT | OTCPK:SGIO.F | OTCPK:GLAX.F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 25.8% | 6.4% | NM- | 1.5% | 5.0% | -4.2% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 37.9% | 0.0% | -26.4% | -2.2% | 12.4% | 2.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 20.6% | 16.7% | 59.3% | 56.3% | 20.5% | -15.8% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 28.9% | 27.6% | 11.4% | 24.4% | 39.4% | 31.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 31.0% | 25.6% | 8.0% | 24.5% | 42.9% | 34.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 32.5% | 27.3% | 7.1% | 24.2% | 41.1% | 26.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 33.9% | 28.1% | 9.7% | 27.0% | 41.9% | 29.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 4.89x | 2.62x | 2.95x | 5.66x | 4.46x | 2.27x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.5x | 9.3x | 30.6x | 20.9x | 10.6x | 7.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 19.3x | 13.1x | 54.2x | 31.9x | 12.0x | 11.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.3x | 14.5x | 30.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.1x | 8.2x | 12.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.8x | 9.3x | 9.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 9,291 | 9,291 | 9,291 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 81,887 | 86,197 | 90,507 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (12,321) | (12,321) | (12,321) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 69,566 | 73,876 | 78,186 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,029.7 | 4,029.7 | 4,029.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 17.26 | 18.33 | 19.40 | ||||
| FX Rate: GBP/USD | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 23.34 | 24.78 | 26.23 | 19.90 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 17.3% | 24.5% | 31.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AZN | 14 | 0SAN | 0NZT | SGIO.F | GLAX.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 274,669 | 55,625 | 31,101 | 38,803 | 1,980,156 | 71,639 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 7,108 | 1,573 | 1,389 | 1,611 | 254,826 | 3,619 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 2,139 | 1,034 | 58 | 290 | 0 | 977 | |
| (-) Debt | (32,939) | (9,402) | (5,693) | (2,878) | (21,688) | (17,354) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (91) | (70) | (1) | 0 | (226) | 437 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 250,886 | 48,760 | 26,854 | 37,826 | 2,213,068 | 59,318 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,550.7 | 434.8 | 430.7 | 190.0 | 850.8 | 4,029.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 161.79 | 112.15 | 62.35 | 199.09 | 2,601.21 | 14.72 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.35 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 146.96 | 0.74 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 119.68 | 112.15 | 49.96 | 199.09 | 17.70 | 19.90 | |
| Trading Currency | GBP | EUR | CHF | EUR | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.35 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 146.96 | 0.74 | |