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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 12.8% - 11.8% | 12.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 4.5x - 6.5x | 5.5x |
Fair Value | $0.12 - $0.23 | $0.17 |
Upside | -53.1% - -10.9% | -32.8% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 4,451 | 5,132 | 5,801 | 6,503 | 6,991 | 7,235 | 7,380 | 7,528 | 7,678 | 7,832 | 7,988 |
% Growth | 6.1% | 15.3% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 430 | 529 | 684 | 677 | 798 | 826 | 842 | 859 | 876 | 894 | 912 |
% of Revenue | 9.7% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 11.4% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 529 | 684 | 677 | 798 | 826 | 842 | 859 | 876 | 894 | 912 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (160) | (210) | (123) | (132) | (137) | (140) | (142) | (145) | (148) | (151) | |
EBIT | 369 | 474 | 554 | 665 | 689 | 703 | 717 | 731 | 746 | 760 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (100) | (128) | (150) | (180) | (186) | (190) | (193) | (197) | (201) | (205) | |
NOPAT | 147 | 269 | 346 | 404 | 486 | 503 | 513 | 523 | 534 | 544 | 555 |
Capital Expenditures | (375) | (900) | (308) | (400) | (536) | (555) | (497) | (507) | (517) | (507) | (510) |
NWC Investment | (42) | (112) | (110) | (116) | (80) | (40) | (24) | (24) | (25) | (25) | (26) |
(+) D&A | 228 | 160 | 210 | 123 | 132 | 137 | 140 | 142 | 145 | 148 | 151 |
Free Cash Flow | (42) | (583) | 137 | 12 | 2 | 45 | 132 | 134 | 137 | 160 | 170 |
% Growth | NM | NM | -91% | -86% | 2578% | 195% | 2% | 2% | 17% | 6% |