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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 12.8% - 11.8% | 12.3% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 7.8% - 8.8% | 8.3% |
| Fair Value | $5.51 - $10.38 | $7.32 |
| Upside | -13.9% - 62.2% | 14.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Sep-24 | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | |
| Revenue | 9,309 | 10,138 | 10,774 | 11,586 | 12,172 | 13,193 | 13,655 | 13,928 | 14,206 | 14,491 | 14,780 | |
| % Growth | 13.9% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 874 | 1,544 | 1,640 | 1,762 | 1,967 | 2,076 | 2,149 | 2,192 | 2,235 | 2,280 | 2,326 | |
| % of Revenue | 9.4% | 15.2% | 15.2% | 15.2% | 16.2% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 1,544 | 1,640 | 1,762 | 1,967 | 2,076 | 2,149 | 2,192 | 2,235 | 2,280 | 2,326 | 2,326 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (820) | (854) | (918) | (1,085) | (1,172) | (1,213) | (1,237) | (1,261) | (1,287) | (1,312) | (1,998) | |
| EBIT | 724 | 786 | 844 | 882 | 905 | 936 | 955 | 974 | 993 | 1,013 | 328 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (145) | (157) | (169) | (176) | (181) | (187) | (191) | (195) | (199) | (203) | (66) | |
| NOPAT | 478 | 579 | 629 | 675 | 705 | 724 | 749 | 764 | 779 | 795 | 811 | 262 |
| Capital Expenditures | (811) | (1,150) | (1,600) | (2,000) | (2,805) | (2,975) | (2,048) | (2,089) | (2,131) | (2,089) | (2,103) | (2,103) |
| NWC Investment | 366 | 267 | 204 | 261 | 188 | 328 | 148 | 88 | 90 | 91 | 93 | 392 |
| (+) D&A | 277 | 820 | 854 | 918 | 1,085 | 1,172 | 1,213 | 1,237 | 1,261 | 1,287 | 1,312 | 1,998 |
| Free Cash Flow | 310 | 516 | 87 | (146) | (826) | (752) | 62 | (1) | (1) | 83 | 113 | 549 |
| % Growth | 67% | -83% | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | 36% | 385% | |