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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.8% - 9.8% | 10.3% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 1.7% - 2.8% | 2.3% |
| Fair Value | $1.22 - $1.57 | $1.37 |
| Upside | -25.1% - -3.6% | -15.7% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (ZAR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Jun-24 | Jun-25 | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | |
| Revenue | 6,240 | 7,943 | 8,063 | 9,819 | 11,047 | 11,875 | |
| % Growth | 13.5% | 27.3% | 1.5% | 21.8% | 12.5% | 7.5% | |
| EBITDA | 1,864 | 2,936 | 4,230 | 4,263 | 5,072 | 5,571 | |
| % of Revenue | 29.9% | 37.0% | 52.5% | 43.4% | 45.9% | 46.9% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (ZAR in millions) | Jun-25 | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 2,936 | 4,230 | 4,263 | 5,072 | 5,571 | 5,571 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (42) | (1,065) | (492) | (554) | (596) | (2,280) | |
| EBIT | 2,894 | 3,164 | 3,771 | 4,518 | 4,976 | 3,291 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (781) | (854) | (1,018) | (1,220) | (1,343) | (889) | |
| NOPAT | 1,135 | 2,112 | 2,310 | 2,753 | 3,298 | 3,632 | 2,402 |
| Capital Expenditures | (2,986) | (2,549) | (3,429) | (1,334) | (2,438) | (2,400) | (2,400) |
| NWC Investment | (17) | (40) | (3) | (41) | (29) | (20) | (6) |
| (+) D&A | 309 | 42 | 1,065 | 492 | 554 | 596 | 2,280 |
| Free Cash Flow | (1,559) | (435) | (57) | 1,869 | 1,386 | 1,808 | 2,276 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | -26% | 30% | 26% | |