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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 4.7x - 5.2x | 4.9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3.2x - 3.5x | 3.3x |
| Fair Value | $9.75 - $11.26 | $10.51 |
| Upside | 31.0% - 51.4% | 41.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Aegean Airlines S.A. | 32A | DB:32A |
| Ryanair Holdings plc | RY4C | XTRA:RY4C |
| Air France-KLM SA | AFR0 | XTRA:AFR0 |
| Wizz Air Holdings Plc | WI2 | DB:WI2 |
| Finnair Oyj | FAI0 | DB:FAI0 |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG | DLAK.Y | PINC:DLAK.Y |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 32A | RY4C | AFR0 | WI2 | FAI0 | DLAK.Y | ||
| DB:32A | XTRA:RY4C | XTRA:AFR0 | DB:WI2 | DB:FAI0 | PINC:DLAK.Y | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 15.2% | 13.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 3.4% | -2.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 79.8% | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | 193.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -4.7% | -11.5% | 1.4% | 85.3% | -18.1% | -19.1% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 1.4% | 11.8% | -0.5% | -9.2% | -11.0% | 1.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 16.2% | 21.2% | 9.8% | -9.9% | 17.2% | 11.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 14.7% | 22.7% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 13.8% | 8.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 14.7% | 20.3% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 13.8% | 8.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.93x | 1.54x | 0.38x | 1.27x | 0.50x | 0.34x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.3x | 7.6x | 4.0x | 16.7x | 3.6x | 4.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 7.4x | 12.4x | 7.6x | 77.3x | 13.4x | 10.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.6x | 6.3x | 16.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -11.1x | 3.2x | 5.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.7x | 4.9x | 5.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 3,173 | 3,173 | 3,173 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 14,891 | 15,674 | 16,458 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (4,912) | (4,912) | (4,912) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 9,979 | 10,762 | 11,546 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,198.3 | 1,198.3 | 1,198.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 8.33 | 8.98 | 9.64 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/USD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 9.47 | 10.22 | 10.96 | 7.44 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 27.3% | 37.3% | 47.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 32A | RY4C | AFR0 | WI2 | FAI0 | DLAK.Y | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,680 | 21,196 | 12,001 | 6,754 | 1,540 | 12,750 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 739 | 2,751 | 6,017 | 1,766 | 944 | 8,488 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 67 | 0 | 1,235 | 0 | 0 | 884 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,431) | (2,700) | (14,663) | (6,529) | (1,885) | (14,232) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (2,563) | 0 | 0 | (52) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,054 | 21,247 | 2,027 | 1,991 | 599 | 7,838 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 89.5 | 1,062.9 | 262.7 | 103.4 | 204.8 | 1,198.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 11.78 | 19.99 | 7.72 | 19.26 | 2.93 | 6.54 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.88 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 11.78 | 19.99 | 7.72 | 19.26 | 2.93 | 7.44 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.88 | |