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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 15.9x - 17.5x | 16.7x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 15.1x - 16.6x | 15.8x |
Fair Value | $206.65 - $226.80 | $216.72 |
Upside | 14.2% - 25.3% | 19.7% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Tokyo Seimitsu Co., Ltd. | 7729 | TSE:7729 |
Tokyo Electron Limited | 8035 | TSE:8035 |
ASML Holding N.V. | ASML01 | SET:ASML01 |
ASM International NV | AVS | DB:AVS |
ASMPT Limited | 522 | SEHK:522 |
Disco Corporation | DISP.F | OTCPK:DISP.F |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
7729 | 8035 | ASML01 | AVS | 522 | DISP.F | ||
TSE:7729 | TSE:8035 | SET:ASML01 | DB:AVS | SEHK:522 | OTCPK:DISP.F | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 17.2% | 23.3% | 24.9% | 16.1% | -11.0% | 33.0% | |
3Y CAGR | 2.7% | 6.1% | 12.2% | 19.2% | -39.7% | 21.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 16.1% | 49.3% | 25.8% | 32.1% | -31.3% | 35.0% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 22.6% | 28.7% | 34.3% | 30.1% | 14.8% | 39.6% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 22.3% | 27.8% | 35.2% | 29.2% | 10.8% | 43.1% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 23.2% | 31.2% | 34.9% | 30.9% | 7.7% | 45.5% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 23.2% | 31.2% | 36.6% | 31.7% | 7.1% | 45.5% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.92x | 4.05x | 8.20x | 6.94x | 1.63x | 8.48x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.3x | 13.0x | 22.4x | 21.9x | 23.1x | 18.6x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 9.7x | 14.1x | 24.3x | 24.9x | 45.2x | 20.0x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.3x | 21.9x | 23.1x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.8x | 18.6x | 50.9x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 15.9x | 16.7x | 17.5x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 178,913 | 178,913 | 178,913 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,839,115 | 2,988,543 | 3,137,970 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 236,191 | 236,191 | 236,191 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 3,075,306 | 3,224,734 | 3,374,161 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 108.4 | 108.4 | 108.4 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 28,368.76 | 29,747.18 | 31,125.60 | ||||
FX Rate: JPY/USD | 143.9 | 143.9 | 143.9 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 197.17 | 206.75 | 216.33 | 181.00 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 8.9% | 14.2% | 19.5% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 7729 | 8035 | ASML01 | AVS | 522 | DISP.F | |
Enterprise Value | 288,891 | 9,840,289 | 249,471 | 21,917 | 21,499 | 2,586,895 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 54,541 | 496,238 | 9,104 | 1,145 | 5,103 | 229,167 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 3,246 | 200,013 | 939 | 682 | 0 | 7,372 | |
(-) Debt | (20,083) | 0 | (3,681) | (20) | (4,571) | 0 | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (1,056) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (348) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 325,539 | 10,536,540 | 255,832 | 23,725 | 22,031 | 2,823,086 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 40.5 | 458.1 | 469,763.7 | 49.1 | 416.5 | 108.4 | |
Implied Stock Price | 8,045.00 | 23,000.00 | 0.54 | 483.10 | 52.90 | 26,042.10 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.03 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 143.88 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 8,045.00 | 23,000.00 | 20.30 | 483.10 | 52.90 | 181.00 | |
Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | THB | EUR | HKD | USD | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.03 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 143.88 |