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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 24.7x - 27.3x | 26.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 7.5x - 8.3x | 7.9x |
| Fair Value | $3.53 - $3.72 | $3.63 |
| Upside | -27.5% - -23.5% | -25.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Grupo TMM, S.A.B. | GTMA.Y | OTCPK:GTMA.Y |
| MingZhu Logistics Holdings Limited | YGMZ | NasdaqCM:YGMZ |
| Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | YMM | NYSE:YMM |
| Guangshen Railway Company Limited | GNGY.F | OTCPK:GNGY.F |
| Pony Group Inc. | PNYG | OTCPK:PNYG |
| DiDi Global Inc. | DIDI.Y | OTCPK:DIDI.Y |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| GTMA.Y | YGMZ | YMM | GNGY.F | PNYG | DIDI.Y | ||
| OTCPK:GTMA.Y | NasdaqCM:YGMZ | NYSE:YMM | OTCPK:GNGY.F | OTCPK:PNYG | OTCPK:DIDI.Y | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | 5.6% | NM- | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 3491.7% | -575.3% | 176.8% | -21.9% | -5.6% | 168.4% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -0.9% | 1.2% | -35.9% | -3.2% | -115.9% | -11.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 1.0% | 1.0% | 12.7% | 5.6% | -83.3% | -1.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 11.5% | -10.0% | 22.0% | 5.4% | -167.4% | 0.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 13.5% | -10.0% | 28.8% | 4.7% | -134.6% | 0.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.15x | 2.75x | 5.29x | 0.66x | 21.96x | 0.52x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.4x | -34.4x | 17.9x | 5.6x | NA | 24.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.5x | -27.5x | 18.3x | 14.0x | -16.3x | 55.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -27.5x | 8.5x | 18.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -22.5x | -2.2x | 55.0x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 24.7x | 26.0x | 27.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 1,942 | 1,942 | 1,942 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 47,933 | 50,456 | 52,979 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 56,780 | 56,780 | 56,780 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 104,713 | 107,236 | 109,758 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,656.4 | 4,656.4 | 4,656.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 22.49 | 23.03 | 23.57 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/USD | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.13 | 3.21 | 3.28 | 4.87 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -35.7% | -34.2% | -32.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | GTMA.Y | YGMZ | YMM | GNGY.F | PNYG | DIDI.Y | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,250 | 111 | 59,613 | 15,108 | 3 | 106,162 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 264 | 1 | 20,159 | 2,399 | 0 | 51,842 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 1 | 10,786 | 811 | 0 | 17,713 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,502) | (10) | (57) | (1,896) | (1) | (12,658) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (469) | 39 | 0 | (118) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,013 | 102 | 90,033 | 16,461 | 2 | 162,942 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 34.9 | 76.7 | 1,045.9 | 10,908.8 | 11.5 | 4,656.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 29.01 | 1.33 | 86.08 | 1.51 | 0.16 | 34.99 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 19.34 | 1.00 | 7.19 | 7.19 | 1.00 | 7.19 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1.50 | 1.33 | 11.98 | 0.21 | 0.16 | 4.87 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 19.34 | 1.00 | 7.19 | 7.19 | 1.00 | 7.19 | |