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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 25.2x - 27.2x | 26.2x |
| Fair Value | $0.25 - $0.27 | $0.26 |
| Upside | -60.1% - -56.4% | -58.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 407 | 247 | 1,222 | 864 | 864 | 864 |
| % Growth | -12.2% | -39.4% | 395.1% | -29.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | -82 | -237 | 1,072 | 149 | 149 | 149 |
| % of Revenue | -20.2% | -96.0% | 87.7% | 17.3% | 17.3% | 17.3% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | (237) | 1,072 | 149 | 149 | 149 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (21) | (21) | (22) | (22) | (22) | |
| EBIT | (258) | 1,051 | 127 | 127 | 127 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0 | (147) | (18) | (18) | (18) | |
| NOPAT | (82) | (258) | 904 | 110 | 110 | 110 |
| Capital Expenditures | #NUM! | (116) | (183) | (130) | (143) | (152) |
| NWC Investment | (30) | (86) | 525 | (193) | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 13 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
| Free Cash Flow | #NUM! | (439) | 1,267 | (191) | (12) | (21) |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | |