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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 7.3x - 9.3x | 8.3x |
| Fair Value | $11.91 - $13.65 | $12.74 |
| Upside | 45.0% - 66.2% | 55.2% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
| Revenue | 261,757 | 263,000 | 267,000 | 271,000 | 275,000 | 280,000 | 280,000 | 280,000 | 280,000 | 280,000 | 280,000 |
| % Growth | -2.6% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | 24,946 | 32,500 | 36,250 | 38,650 | 40,000 | 41,000 | 41,000 | 41,000 | 41,000 | 41,000 | 41,000 |
| % of Revenue | 9.5% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 14.3% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 14.6% | 14.6% | 14.6% | 14.6% | 14.6% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 | |
| EBITDA | 32,500 | 36,250 | 38,650 | 40,000 | 41,000 | 41,000 | 41,000 | 41,000 | 41,000 | 41,000 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (8,800) | (7,750) | (9,150) | (9,500) | (9,500) | (9,500) | (9,500) | (9,500) | (9,500) | (9,500) | |
| EBIT | 23,700 | 28,500 | 29,500 | 30,500 | 31,500 | 31,500 | 31,500 | 31,500 | 31,500 | 31,500 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (7,110) | (8,550) | (8,850) | (9,150) | (9,450) | (9,450) | (9,450) | (9,450) | (9,450) | (9,450) | |
| NOPAT | 9,965 | 16,590 | 19,950 | 20,650 | 21,350 | 22,050 | 22,050 | 22,050 | 22,050 | 22,050 | 22,050 |
| Capital Expenditures | (3,510) | (10,500) | (10,500) | (10,250) | (8,000) | (7,000) | (7,000) | (7,000) | (7,000) | (7,000) | (7,000) |
| NWC Investment | 941 | (165) | (532) | (532) | (532) | (665) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 10,710 | 8,800 | 7,750 | 9,150 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 9,500 |
| Free Cash Flow | 18,106 | 14,725 | 16,668 | 19,018 | 22,318 | 23,885 | 24,550 | 24,550 | 24,550 | 24,550 | 24,550 |
| % Growth | -19% | 13% | 14% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |