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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 6.5x - 7.2x | 6.9x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 6.8x - 7.5x | 7.2x |
| Fair Value | $2.68 - $12.12 | $7.40 |
| Upside | -82.8% - -22.4% | -52.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Acom Co., Ltd. | 8572 | TSE:8572 |
| Orient Corporation | 8585 | TSE:8585 |
| J Trust Co., Ltd. | 8508 | TSE:8508 |
| Marui Group Co., Ltd. | 8252 | TSE:8252 |
| Premium Group Co., Ltd. | 7199 | TSE:7199 |
| Credit Saison Co., Ltd. | CSAS.Y | OTCPK:CSAS.Y |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 8572 | 8585 | 8508 | 8252 | 7199 | CSAS.Y | |||
| TSE:8572 | TSE:8585 | TSE:8508 | TSE:8252 | TSE:7199 | OTCPK:CSAS.Y | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 1.2% | -0.4% | 10.5% | -1.3% | 24.1% | 2.5% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 3.4% | -0.2% | 44.7% | 2.1% | 21.0% | 8.9% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 8.3% | 6.4% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 20.6% | 17.4% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 27.8% | 10.0% | -0.2% | 15.2% | 15.4% | 11.7% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 33.3% | 10.1% | -2.9% | 17.5% | 16.8% | 11.4% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 31.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 17.4% | 19.6% | 13.3% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 31.9% | 13.6% | 5.0% | 17.9% | 21.7% | 22.9% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 4.02x | 8.22x | 0.07x | 4.47x | 2.78x | 7.33x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.6x | 60.2x | 1.5x | 25.0x | 12.9x | 32.0x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 1.85x | 0.55x | 0.38x | 2.01x | 2.16x | 0.97x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.07x | 4.02x | 8.22x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 5.04x | 6.80x | 7.61x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 6.54x | 6.89x | 7.23x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 476,166 | 476,166 | 476,166 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,115,653 | 3,279,634 | 3,443,616 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (3,024,368) | (3,024,368) | (3,024,368) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 91,285 | 255,266 | 419,248 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 239.4 | 239.4 | 239.4 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 381.29 | 1,066.24 | 1,751.18 | |||||
| FX Rate: JPY/USD | 145.2 | 145.2 | 145.2 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 2.63 | 7.34 | 12.06 | 15.61 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -83.2% | -53.0% | -22.8% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 8572 | 8585 | 8508 | 8252 | 7199 | CSAS.Y | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,204,139 | 1,983,357 | (4,438) | 1,107,398 | 91,602 | 3,567,163 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 78,053 | 206,344 | 127,886 | 67,601 | 18,147 | 128,918 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,493 | 122,533 | 12,644 | 45,713 | 3,447 | 299,641 | |
| (-) Debt | (704,200) | (2,185,387) | (69,308) | (734,638) | (44,161) | (3,439,102) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (51,693) | (7,003) | (19,385) | (389) | (47) | (13,825) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 527,792 | 119,844 | 47,399 | 485,685 | 68,988 | 542,795 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,566.6 | 171.2 | 132.8 | 180.7 | 38.0 | 239.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 336.90 | 700.00 | 357.00 | 2,688.00 | 1,814.00 | 2,267.23 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 145.24 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 336.90 | 700.00 | 357.00 | 2,688.00 | 1,814.00 | 15.61 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 145.24 | |