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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5.1x - 5.6x | 5.3x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.2x - 4.6x | 4.4x |
| Fair Value | $1.15 - $1.35 | $1.25 |
| Upside | -23.3% - -10.2% | -16.7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Qantas Airways Limited | QAN | ASX:QAN |
| Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. | 9201 | TSE:9201 |
| Ryanair Holdings plc | RYAO.F | OTCPK:RYAO.F |
| ANA Holdings Inc. | 9202 | TSE:9202 |
| Singapore Airlines Limited | C6L | SGX:C6L |
| Cathay Pacific Airways Limited | CPCA.F | OTCPK:CPCA.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| QAN | 9201 | RYAO.F | 9202 | C6L | CPCA.F | ||
| ASX:QAN | TSE:9201 | OTCPK:RYAO.F | TSE:9202 | SGX:C6L | OTCPK:CPCA.F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 13.8% | 13.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 394.7% | NM- | 102.7% | NM- | 60.4% | 48.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -1.1% | 5.1% | 19.6% | -1.4% | -18.5% | 2.0% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 9.6% | 1.4% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 11.6% | 12.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 20.6% | 18.1% | 22.7% | 17.1% | 22.7% | 21.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 16.6% | 17.1% | 19.4% | 15.4% | 18.0% | 20.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 16.6% | 17.1% | 22.4% | 15.4% | 18.0% | 20.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.91x | 0.69x | 1.71x | 0.55x | 1.02x | 1.11x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.5x | 4.0x | 7.6x | 3.6x | 5.7x | 5.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.3x | 8.0x | 11.9x | 6.3x | 11.5x | 8.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.6x | 5.5x | 7.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -336.9x | 5.6x | 53.0x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.1x | 5.3x | 5.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 20,856 | 20,856 | 20,856 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 105,405 | 110,953 | 116,500 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (40,707) | (40,707) | (40,707) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 64,698 | 70,246 | 75,793 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 7,280.9 | 7,280.9 | 7,280.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 8.89 | 9.65 | 10.41 | ||||
| FX Rate: HKD/USD | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.13 | 1.23 | 1.33 | 1.50 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -24.5% | -18.1% | -11.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | QAN | 9201 | RYAO.F | 9202 | C6L | CPCA.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 20,928 | 1,265,947 | 45,124 | 1,263,411 | 20,264 | 126,438 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,340 | 749,030 | 4,348 | 1,216,418 | 9,256 | 10,534 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 46 | 200,900 | 0 | 192,742 | 4,666 | 17,241 | |
| (-) Debt | (7,229) | (896,023) | (2,324) | (1,349,058) | (12,914) | (68,475) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (5) | (41,615) | 0 | (9,778) | (414) | (7) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 16,080 | 1,278,239 | 47,149 | 1,313,735 | 20,858 | 85,731 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,482.0 | 436.6 | 1,781.1 | 469.9 | 3,022.9 | 7,280.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 10.85 | 2,928.00 | 26.47 | 2,795.50 | 6.90 | 11.77 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.85 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 10.85 | 2,928.00 | 30.26 | 2,795.50 | 6.90 | 1.50 | |
| Trading Currency | AUD | JPY | USD | JPY | SGD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.85 | |