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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 12.5% - 11.5% | 12.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 8.5% - 9.5% | 9.0% |
| Fair Value | $1.03 - $2.41 | $1.49 |
| Upside | -15.9% - 97.9% | 22.0% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (HKD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| Revenue | 104,371 | 110,957 | 115,794 | 121,098 | 124,449 | 129,851 | |
| % Growth | 10.5% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 4.3% | |
| EBITDA | 20,856 | 25,730 | 25,170 | 26,179 | 26,903 | 28,071 | |
| % of Revenue | 20.0% | 23.2% | 21.7% | 21.6% | 21.6% | 21.6% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (HKD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 25,730 | 25,170 | 26,179 | 26,903 | 28,071 | 28,071 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (12,278) | (11,837) | (12,286) | (10,601) | (14,459) | (25,080) | |
| EBIT | 13,452 | 13,332 | 13,893 | 16,302 | 13,612 | 2,991 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (1,883) | (1,867) | (1,945) | (2,282) | (1,906) | (419) | |
| NOPAT | 11,332 | 11,569 | 11,466 | 11,948 | 14,020 | 11,706 | 2,572 |
| Capital Expenditures | (9,207) | (9,500) | (10,764) | (11,170) | (44,000) | (26,400) | (26,400) |
| NWC Investment | 2,787 | 1,857 | 1,363 | 1,495 | 945 | 1,523 | 3,295 |
| (+) D&A | 7,679 | 12,278 | 11,837 | 12,286 | 10,601 | 14,459 | 25,080 |
| Free Cash Flow | 12,591 | 16,204 | 13,902 | 14,559 | (18,434) | 1,288 | 4,547 |
| % Growth | 29% | -14% | 5% | NM | NM | 253% | |