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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 11.0% - 10.0% | 10.5% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 3.8x - 5.8x | 4.8x |
| Fair Value | $0.94 - $1.63 | $1.28 |
| Upside | -3.8% - 66.0% | 30.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (HKD in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 104,371 | 110,957 | 115,794 | 121,909 | 124,449 | 129,851 |
| % Growth | 10.5% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 4.3% |
| EBITDA | 20,856 | 25,730 | 25,816 | 26,179 | 26,724 | 27,884 |
| % of Revenue | 20.0% | 23.2% | 22.3% | 21.5% | 21.5% | 21.5% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (HKD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 25,730 | 25,816 | 26,179 | 26,724 | 27,884 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (12,468) | (12,484) | (12,422) | (10,422) | (14,272) | |
| EBIT | 13,263 | 13,332 | 13,757 | 16,302 | 13,612 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (1,857) | (1,867) | (1,926) | (2,282) | (1,906) | |
| NOPAT | 11,332 | 11,406 | 11,466 | 11,831 | 14,020 | 11,706 |
| Capital Expenditures | (9,207) | (9,500) | (10,764) | (11,170) | (44,000) | (26,400) |
| NWC Investment | 2,787 | 1,857 | 1,363 | 1,724 | 716 | 1,523 |
| (+) D&A | 7,679 | 12,468 | 12,484 | 12,422 | 10,422 | 14,272 |
| Free Cash Flow | 12,591 | 16,230 | 14,549 | 14,807 | (18,842) | 1,102 |
| % Growth | 29% | -10% | 2% | NM | NM | |