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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | -491.9x - -543.7x | -517.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 25.6x - 28.2x | 26.9x |
| Fair Value | $0.22 - $0.32 | $0.27 |
| Upside | -42.2% - -16.6% | -29.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| China Southern Airlines Company Limited | 600029 | SHSE:600029 |
| Spring Airlines Co., Ltd. | 601021 | SHSE:601021 |
| Juneyao Airlines Co., Ltd | 603885 | SHSE:603885 |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited | 539448 | BSE:539448 |
| Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA | NAS | OB:NAS |
| China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited | CHEA.F | PINC:CHEA.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 600029 | 601021 | 603885 | 539448 | NAS | CHEA.F | ||
| SHSE:600029 | SHSE:601021 | SHSE:603885 | BSE:539448 | OB:NAS | PINC:CHEA.F | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -11.4% | 10.8% | 9.6% | NM- | 20.9% | -51.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -43.5% | -9.6% | -20.8% | 5.7% | -4.4% | -144.6% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -6.9% | 1.1% | -2.7% | -2.8% | -38.0% | -21.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 2.4% | 16.0% | 12.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | -2.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.1% | 14.5% | 11.5% | 15.5% | 6.1% | 0.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 2.4% | 14.6% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 6.1% | -0.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.82x | 3.10x | 2.51x | 3.00x | 0.53x | 1.88x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 20.4x | 12.7x | 15.7x | 22.3x | 6.7x | 21.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 74.4x | 21.3x | 23.9x | 23.1x | 8.6x | -546.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 8.6x | 23.1x | 74.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -119.7x | -20.8x | -9.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | -491.9x | -517.8x | -543.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | (456) | (456) | (456) | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 224,329 | 236,135 | 247,942 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (174,935) | (174,935) | (174,935) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 49,394 | 61,200 | 73,007 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 33,492.9 | 33,492.9 | 33,492.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1.47 | 1.83 | 2.18 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/USD | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.39 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -47.7% | -35.2% | -22.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 600029 | 601021 | 603885 | 539448 | NAS | CHEA.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 315,038 | 62,372 | 55,454 | 2,366,937 | 18,649 | 269,369 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 16,362 | 10,861 | 1,903 | 360,394 | 10,880 | 6,748 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 7,849 | 839 | 4,344 | 0 | 85 | 4,312 | |
| (-) Debt | (229,838) | (21,856) | (34,621) | (592,369) | (16,077) | (184,853) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (18,244) | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | (1,142) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 91,167 | 52,216 | 27,093 | 2,134,962 | 13,538 | 94,434 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 16,221.9 | 972.7 | 2,184.9 | 386.4 | 963.9 | 33,492.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5.62 | 53.68 | 12.40 | 5,524.70 | 14.05 | 2.82 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.27 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.62 | 53.68 | 12.40 | 5,524.70 | 14.05 | 0.39 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | INR | NOK | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.27 | |