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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 12.0% - 11.0% | 11.5% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 2.3% - 3.3% | 2.8% |
| Fair Value | $0.15 - $0.28 | $0.21 |
| Upside | -56.9% - -19.7% | -40.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| Revenue | 132,120 | 141,571 | 151,244 | 160,648 | 157,851 | 157,851 | |
| % Growth | 16.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | -1.7% | 0.0% | |
| EBITDA | 11,676 | 32,552 | 37,880 | 40,935 | 40,222 | 40,222 | |
| % of Revenue | 8.8% | 23.0% | 25.0% | 25.5% | 25.5% | 25.5% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 32,552 | 37,880 | 40,935 | 40,222 | 40,222 | 40,222 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (27,176) | (28,692) | (28,835) | (17,512) | (17,512) | (13,835) | |
| EBIT | 5,376 | 9,188 | 12,100 | 22,710 | 22,710 | 26,388 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (860) | (1,470) | (1,936) | (3,634) | (3,634) | (4,222) | |
| NOPAT | 201 | 4,516 | 7,718 | 10,164 | 19,076 | 19,076 | 22,166 |
| Capital Expenditures | (16,339) | (16,072) | (15,278) | (15,211) | (13,200) | (14,563) | (14,563) |
| NWC Investment | 3,479 | 1,793 | 1,835 | 1,784 | (531) | 0 | 824 |
| (+) D&A | 11,437 | 27,176 | 28,692 | 28,835 | 17,512 | 17,512 | 13,835 |
| Free Cash Flow | (1,223) | 17,413 | 22,967 | 25,572 | 22,858 | 22,026 | 22,261 |
| % Growth | NM | 32% | 11% | -11% | -4% | 1% | |