Looks like there`s been an error while trying to load this page.
Our team has been notified but please contact us using the email support widget if the problem persists.
| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 13.3% - 12.3% | 12.8% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 6.6x - 8.6x | 7.6x |
| Fair Value | $0.27 - $0.50 | $0.38 |
| Upside | -19.3% - 50.8% | 15.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 132,120 | 141,219 | 150,656 | 160,039 | 157,851 | 157,851 |
| % Growth | 16.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | -1.4% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | 11,676 | 33,550 | 37,529 | 41,156 | 40,594 | 40,594 |
| % of Revenue | 8.8% | 23.8% | 24.9% | 25.7% | 25.7% | 25.7% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 33,550 | 37,529 | 41,156 | 40,594 | 40,594 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (28,914) | (28,459) | (29,393) | (17,884) | (17,884) | |
| EBIT | 4,636 | 9,070 | 11,763 | 22,710 | 22,710 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (742) | (1,451) | (1,882) | (3,634) | (3,634) | |
| NOPAT | 201 | 3,894 | 7,619 | 9,881 | 19,076 | 19,076 |
| Capital Expenditures | (16,339) | (15,704) | (15,725) | (15,635) | (13,200) | (14,853) |
| NWC Investment | 3,822 | 1,897 | 1,967 | 1,956 | (456) | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 11,437 | 28,914 | 28,459 | 29,393 | 17,884 | 17,884 |
| Free Cash Flow | (880) | 19,001 | 22,320 | 25,596 | 23,304 | 22,107 |
| % Growth | NM | 17% | 15% | -9% | -5% | |