Looks like there`s been an error while trying to load this page.
Our team has been notified but please contact us using the email support widget if the problem persists.
| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.0% - 9.0% | 9.5% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 12.3x - 14.3x | 13.3x |
| Fair Value | $0.86 - $1.01 | $0.93 |
| Upside | 6.0% - 24.1% | 14.7% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 16,951 | 18,689 | 20,579 | 22,355 | 23,137 | 23,600 | 24,072 | 24,553 | 25,044 | 25,545 | 26,056 |
| % Growth | -1.0% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 496 | 1,302 | 1,470 | 1,566 | 1,621 | 1,653 | 1,686 | 1,720 | 1,754 | 1,790 | 1,825 |
| % of Revenue | 2.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| EBITDA | 1,302 | 1,470 | 1,566 | 1,621 | 1,653 | 1,686 | 1,720 | 1,754 | 1,790 | 1,825 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (313) | (264) | (173) | (179) | (183) | (187) | (190) | (194) | (198) | (202) | |
| EBIT | 989 | 1,206 | 1,393 | 1,442 | 1,470 | 1,500 | 1,530 | 1,560 | 1,592 | 1,623 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (138) | (169) | (195) | (202) | (206) | (210) | (214) | (218) | (223) | (227) | |
| NOPAT | 326 | 851 | 1,037 | 1,198 | 1,240 | 1,265 | 1,290 | 1,316 | 1,342 | 1,369 | 1,396 |
| Capital Expenditures | (209) | (264) | (250) | (221) | (245) | (250) | (239) | (244) | (244) | (242) | (243) |
| NWC Investment | 68 | (714) | (776) | (729) | (321) | (190) | (194) | (198) | (202) | (206) | (210) |
| (+) D&A | 116 | 313 | 264 | 173 | 179 | 183 | 187 | 190 | 194 | 198 | 202 |
| Free Cash Flow | 302 | 186 | 275 | 421 | 853 | 1,007 | 1,044 | 1,065 | 1,090 | 1,119 | 1,145 |
| % Growth | -38% | 48% | 53% | 103% | 18% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | |