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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 9.2x - 11.2x | 10.2x |
| Fair Value | $2.58 - $2.99 | $2.77 |
| Upside | 53.3% - 77.7% | 65.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (MXN in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 4,165 | 4,356 | 4,603 | 5,028 | 5,148 | 5,251 | 5,356 | 5,463 | 5,572 | 5,684 | 5,797 |
| % Growth | 13.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 2,229 | 2,410 | 2,662 | 2,867 | 2,991 | 3,051 | 3,112 | 3,174 | 3,238 | 3,302 | 3,368 |
| % of Revenue | 53.5% | 55.3% | 57.8% | 57.0% | 58.1% | 58.1% | 58.1% | 58.1% | 58.1% | 58.1% | 58.1% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (MXN in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| EBITDA | 2,410 | 2,662 | 2,867 | 2,991 | 3,051 | 3,112 | 3,174 | 3,238 | 3,302 | 3,368 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (274) | (303) | (284) | (305) | (311) | (317) | (324) | (330) | (337) | (343) | |
| EBIT | 2,136 | 2,359 | 2,583 | 2,686 | 2,740 | 2,795 | 2,850 | 2,907 | 2,966 | 3,025 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (619) | (684) | (749) | (779) | (795) | (810) | (827) | (843) | (860) | (877) | |
| NOPAT | 1,535 | 1,517 | 1,675 | 1,834 | 1,907 | 1,945 | 1,984 | 2,024 | 2,064 | 2,106 | 2,148 |
| Capital Expenditures | #NUM! | (100) | (130) | (110) | (124) | (126) | (120) | (123) | (123) | (122) | (123) |
| NWC Investment | 49 | 19 | 25 | 43 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| (+) D&A | 67 | 274 | 303 | 284 | 305 | 311 | 317 | 324 | 330 | 337 | 343 |
| Free Cash Flow | #NUM! | 1,710 | 1,873 | 2,051 | 2,100 | 2,140 | 2,192 | 2,236 | 2,282 | 2,332 | 2,380 |
| % Growth | NM | 10% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | |