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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8.0x - 8.9x | 8.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6.1x - 6.8x | 6.4x |
| Fair Value | $13.79 - $15.48 | $14.64 |
| Upside | 20.0% - 34.6% | 27.3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) | SCA A | OM:SCAA |
| International Paper Company | INP | DB:INP |
| Graphic Packaging Holding Company | 4W8 | DB:4W8 |
| Packaging Corporation of America | PKA | DB:PKA |
| Holmen AB (publ) | HOLM A | OM:HOLMA |
| Billerud AB (publ) | BLRD.F | OTCPK:BLRD.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| SCA A | INP | 4W8 | PKA | HOLM A | BLRD.F | ||
| OM:SCAA | DB:INP | DB:4W8 | DB:PKA | OM:HOLMA | OTCPK:BLRD.F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 3.5% | -5.8% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 8.5% | 11.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -9.6% | -10.1% | 17.3% | -0.7% | -0.4% | 6.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 34.6% | -5.5% | -11.8% | 13.5% | -12.3% | 60.1% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 24.7% | 13.2% | 16.8% | 20.9% | 22.0% | 12.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 21.5% | 11.5% | 19.8% | 20.8% | 22.9% | 8.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 23.3% | 11.0% | 19.1% | 20.0% | 17.1% | 10.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 23.2% | 9.8% | 18.6% | 20.7% | 16.8% | 10.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 4.57x | 1.73x | 1.42x | 2.24x | 2.69x | 0.71x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 19.7x | 17.6x | 7.6x | 10.8x | 16.0x | 6.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 31.1x | 43.5x | 11.3x | 15.5x | 23.3x | 14.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.6x | 16.0x | 19.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.1x | 7.9x | 14.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.0x | 8.5x | 8.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 4,822 | 4,822 | 4,822 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 38,720 | 40,758 | 42,796 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (5,364) | (5,364) | (5,364) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 33,356 | 35,394 | 37,432 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 248.7 | 248.7 | 248.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 134.12 | 142.31 | 150.51 | ||||
| FX Rate: SEK/USD | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 13.99 | 14.85 | 15.70 | 11.50 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 21.7% | 29.1% | 36.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | SCA A | INP | 4W8 | PKA | HOLM A | BLRD.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 104,954 | 34,404 | 12,253 | 19,081 | 64,450 | 32,779 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,327 | 1,156 | 129 | 843 | 1,565 | 2,142 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 1,698 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (14,961) | (10,328) | (5,711) | (2,803) | (5,238) | (7,506) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (15) | 0 | (1) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 91,305 | 25,232 | 6,670 | 17,193 | 62,475 | 27,415 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 702.3 | 527.9 | 301.8 | 89.3 | 157.4 | 248.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 130.00 | 47.80 | 22.10 | 192.44 | 397.00 | 110.23 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 9.59 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 130.00 | 42.10 | 19.47 | 169.50 | 397.00 | 11.50 | |
| Trading Currency | SEK | EUR | EUR | EUR | SEK | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 9.59 | |