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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 6.8x - 7.6x | 7.2x |
Fair Value | $8.63 - $9.34 | $8.98 |
Upside | 24.8% - 35.2% | 29.9% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(BRL in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 10,180 | 10,379 | 10,899 | 10,491 | 10,491 | 10,491 |
% Growth | 9.3% | 2.0% | 5.0% | -3.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EBITDA | 9,780 | 8,303 | 8,719 | 8,392 | 8,392 | 8,392 |
% of Revenue | 96.1% | 80.0% | 80.0% | 80.0% | 80.0% | 80.0% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(BRL in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 8,303 | 8,719 | 8,392 | 8,392 | 8,392 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 1,484 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (1) | (988) | (951) | (951) | (951) | |
EBIT | 9,786 | 7,731 | 7,442 | 7,442 | 7,442 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (1,859) | (1,469) | (1,414) | (1,414) | (1,414) | |
NOPAT | 7,922 | 7,927 | 6,262 | 6,028 | 6,028 | 6,028 |
Capital Expenditures | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
NWC Investment | 330 | 76 | 198 | (155) | 0 | 0 |
(+) D&A | 0 | 1 | 988 | 951 | 951 | 951 |
Free Cash Flow | 8,251 | 8,003 | 7,448 | 6,823 | 6,978 | 6,978 |
% Growth | -3% | -7% | -8% | 2% | 0% |