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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 11.3x - 12.5x | 11.9x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 8.6x - 9.5x | 9.0x |
Fair Value | $34.46 - $38.77 | $36.62 |
Upside | -15.0% - -4.4% | -9.7% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Dalata Hotel Group plc | DHG | DB:DHG |
SSP Group plc | 83S2 | DB:83S2 |
Marriott International, Inc. | MAQ | DB:MAQ |
Hyatt Hotels Corporation | 1HTA | DB:1HTA |
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | HI91 | DB:HI91 |
Accor SA | ACRF.F | OTCPK:ACRF.F |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
DHG | 83S2 | MAQ | 1HTA | HI91 | ACRF.F | ||
DB:DHG | DB:83S2 | DB:MAQ | DB:1HTA | DB:HI91 | OTCPK:ACRF.F | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 6.1% | 2.2% | 13.7% | 16.1% | 8.3% | 9.4% | |
3Y CAGR | 123.8% | NM- | 30.1% | NM- | 31.7% | NM- | |
Latest Twelve Months | 0.5% | 22.0% | -1.2% | 25.7% | 3.9% | 7.6% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 11.4% | -13.5% | 50.5% | -14.9% | 40.3% | -3.0% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 26.1% | 6.6% | 62.3% | 9.2% | 51.4% | 14.3% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 24.4% | 7.1% | 58.6% | 12.6% | 49.6% | 13.9% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 24.4% | 7.1% | 58.6% | 12.6% | 49.6% | 13.9% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 3.13x | 0.86x | 11.63x | 3.98x | 12.99x | 1.86x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.3x | 7.9x | 18.1x | 17.5x | 24.6x | 10.5x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 12.8x | 12.1x | 19.9x | 31.5x | 26.2x | 13.4x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 12.1x | 19.9x | 31.5x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -30.6x | -14.7x | 13.4x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 11.3x | 11.9x | 12.5x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 779 | 779 | 779 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 8,811 | 9,275 | 9,738 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,367) | (1,367) | (1,367) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 7,444 | 7,908 | 8,371 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 239.3 | 239.3 | 239.3 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 31.10 | 33.04 | 34.98 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/USD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 35.27 | 37.47 | 39.67 | 40.55 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -13.0% | -7.6% | -2.2% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | DHG | 83S2 | MAQ | 1HTA | HI91 | ACRF.F | |
Enterprise Value | 2,052 | 2,837 | 76,059 | 13,139 | 61,540 | 9,924 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 40 | 255 | 396 | 1,383 | 1,301 | 1,244 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 22 | 298 | 668 | 0 | 1,583 | |
(-) Debt | (1,050) | (1,937) | (15,345) | (4,061) | (12,003) | (3,757) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (156) | 0 | (279) | (38) | (437) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 1,042 | 1,020 | 61,408 | 10,850 | 50,800 | 8,557 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 211.3 | 799.8 | 275.4 | 96.2 | 239.6 | 239.3 | |
Implied Stock Price | 4.93 | 1.28 | 223.00 | 112.84 | 212.01 | 35.76 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.87 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 0.88 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 4.93 | 1.47 | 196.64 | 99.50 | 186.95 | 40.55 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | USD | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.87 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 0.88 |