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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6.9x - 7.6x | 7.3x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 8.4x - 9.3x | 8.8x |
| Fair Value | $2.84 - $3.27 | $3.06 |
| Upside | -12.5% - 0.5% | -6.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Ducommun Incorporated | DCO | NYSE:DCO |
| Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. | SPR | NYSE:SPR |
| Triumph Group, Inc. | TGI | NYSE:TGI |
| AeroVironment, Inc. | AVAV | NasdaqGS:AVAV |
| Environmental Tectonics Corporation | ETCC | OTCPK:ETCC |
| CPI Aerostructures, Inc. | CVU | NYSEAM:CVU |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| DCO | SPR | TGI | AVAV | ETCC | CVU | ||
| NYSE:DCO | NYSE:SPR | NYSE:TGI | NasdaqGS:AVAV | OTCPK:ETCC | NYSEAM:CVU | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 2.7% | NM- | -12.9% | 19.0% | -7.2% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | 8.1% | NM- | -16.7% | 16.3% | NM- | 19.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 24.2% | -1948.3% | 41.7% | -43.4% | 406.2% | 5.7% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 11.5% | -3.0% | 13.0% | 14.2% | -8.0% | 3.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 10.3% | 1.3% | 13.2% | 13.4% | -6.9% | 7.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 12.3% | -22.4% | 12.2% | 15.3% | 10.2% | 8.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.3% | -22.4% | 14.5% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 8.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.31x | 1.31x | 2.20x | 4.70x | 0.85x | 0.73x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.7x | -5.9x | 15.2x | 47.9x | 7.2x | 8.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 16.4x | -4.9x | 18.2x | 100.2x | 8.7x | 8.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -5.9x | 10.7x | 47.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -16.7x | 10.5x | 14.3x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.9x | 7.3x | 7.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 7 | 7 | 7 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 49 | 52 | 55 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (15) | (15) | (15) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 34 | 37 | 40 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 2.64 | 2.84 | 3.04 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 2.64 | 2.84 | 3.04 | 3.25 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -18.9% | -12.7% | -6.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | DCO | SPR | TGI | AVAV | ETCC | CVU | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,032 | 8,352 | 2,740 | 3,377 | 40 | 57 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 37 | 537 | 133 | 47 | 0 | 5 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (274) | (5,378) | (970) | (59) | (19) | (21) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (6) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 795 | 3,506 | 1,903 | 3,391 | 21 | 42 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 14.9 | 117.3 | 77.4 | 28.0 | 15.6 | 13.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 53.50 | 29.90 | 24.58 | 121.03 | 1.36 | 3.25 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 53.50 | 29.90 | 24.58 | 121.03 | 1.36 | 3.25 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |