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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.3% - 9.3% | 9.8% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 10.2x - 12.2x | 11.2x |
| Fair Value | $37.72 - $66.36 | $51.77 |
| Upside | -51.8% - -15.1% | -33.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (USD in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Sep-24 | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 |
| Revenue | 2,593 | 2,708 | 2,852 | 2,908 | 2,994 | 2,978 |
| % Growth | -2.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 3.0% | -0.6% |
| EBITDA | 776 | 836 | 912 | 958 | 1,033 | 1,026 |
| % of Revenue | 29.9% | 30.9% | 32.0% | 33.0% | 34.5% | 34.4% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (USD in millions) | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | |
| EBITDA | 836 | 912 | 958 | 1,033 | 1,026 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (295) | (324) | (334) | (363) | (378) | |
| EBIT | 541 | 588 | 624 | 670 | 648 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (97) | (106) | (112) | (121) | (117) | |
| NOPAT | 408 | 444 | 482 | 512 | 549 | 531 |
| Capital Expenditures | (861) | (790) | (661) | (680) | (701) | (721) |
| NWC Investment | 6 | (9) | (12) | (5) | (7) | 1 |
| (+) D&A | 278 | 295 | 324 | 334 | 363 | 378 |
| Free Cash Flow | (169) | (61) | 133 | 161 | 204 | 189 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | 21% | 27% | -7% | |