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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 5.7x - 6.3x | 6.0x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.7x - 0.8x | 0.8x |
| Fair Value | $4.17 - $4.27 | $4.22 |
| Upside | 45.3% - 48.8% | 47.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Axon Enterprise, Inc. | AXON | NasdaqGS:AXON |
| Rocket Lab USA, Inc. | RKLB | NasdaqCM:RKLB |
| AeroVironment, Inc. | AVAV | NasdaqGS:AVAV |
| Byrna Technologies Inc. | BYRN | NasdaqCM:BYRN |
| VirTra, Inc. | VTSI | NasdaqCM:VTSI |
| Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. | SPCE | NYSE:SPCE |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| AXON | RKLB | AVAV | BYRN | VTSI | SPCE | |||
| NasdaqGS:AXON | NasdaqCM:RKLB | NasdaqGS:AVAV | NasdaqCM:BYRN | NasdaqCM:VTSI | NYSE:SPCE | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 31.4% | 55.2% | 17.9% | 147.4% | 7.1% | 13.2% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 34.1% | 91.4% | 22.0% | 26.7% | 2.5% | 28.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 33.4% | 78.3% | 5.2% | 87.3% | -32.1% | 3.5% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -0.4% | -93.1% | 6.9% | -21.4% | 12.2% | -20925.3% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 10.2% | -72.7% | 4.3% | -18.3% | 26.8% | -7751.6% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.7% | -43.5% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | -5352.9% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.7% | -43.5% | 4.7% | 9.0% | 7.6% | -5352.9% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 23.10x | 22.99x | 5.87x | 5.19x | 1.61x | -1.96x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 625.9x | -52.8x | 125.2x | 58.0x | 21.3x | 0.0x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 23.22x | 23.00x | 5.86x | 5.37x | 1.98x | 16.65x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 1.61x | 5.87x | 23.10x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | -1.96x | 228.05x | 6313.65x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 5.74x | 6.04x | 6.35x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 7 | 7 | 7 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 40 | 43 | 45 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 131 | 131 | 131 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 171 | 173 | 176 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 40.8 | 40.8 | 40.8 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 4.20 | 4.25 | 4.30 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 4.20 | 4.25 | 4.30 | 2.87 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 46.2% | 48.1% | 49.9% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AXON | RKLB | AVAV | BYRN | VTSI | SPCE | |
| Enterprise Value | 47,764 | 10,028 | 4,335 | 495 | 42 | (14) | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 986 | 419 | 47 | 19 | 18 | 563 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 333 | 61 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 61 | |
| (-) Debt | (731) | (475) | (59) | (3) | (8) | (494) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 48,351 | 10,032 | 4,349 | 512 | 52 | 117 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 77.8 | 453.5 | 28.0 | 22.7 | 11.3 | 40.8 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 621.10 | 22.12 | 155.21 | 22.57 | 4.64 | 2.87 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 621.10 | 22.12 | 155.21 | 22.57 | 4.64 | 2.87 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |