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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8.7x - 9.6x | 9.2x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6.3x - 7.0x | 6.6x |
Fair Value | $26.88 - $29.89 | $28.38 |
Upside | 11.7% - 24.2% | 17.9% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Marten Transport, Ltd. | MRTN | NasdaqGS:MRTN |
Landstar System, Inc. | LSTR | NasdaqGS:LSTR |
Werner Enterprises, Inc. | WERN | NasdaqGS:WERN |
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | JBHT | NasdaqGS:JBHT |
Heartland Express, Inc. | HTLD | NasdaqGS:HTLD |
Schneider National, Inc. | SNDR | NYSE:SNDR |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
MRTN | LSTR | WERN | JBHT | HTLD | SNDR | ||
NasdaqGS:MRTN | NasdaqGS:LSTR | NasdaqGS:WERN | NasdaqGS:JBHT | NasdaqGS:HTLD | NYSE:SNDR | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -2.9% | -2.3% | -5.5% | 4.2% | -1.3% | -2.5% | |
3Y CAGR | -10.4% | -18.1% | -12.9% | -0.2% | -3.7% | -12.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -25.7% | -21.1% | -22.0% | -5.0% | -12.8% | -0.4% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 19.2% | 7.7% | 16.2% | 13.3% | 22.7% | 13.1% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 17.7% | 7.5% | 13.1% | 13.5% | 16.6% | 11.8% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 15.2% | 6.3% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 14.7% | 10.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 14.8% | 5.8% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 14.7% | 10.7% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.08x | 0.93x | 0.80x | 1.33x | 0.87x | 0.84x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.3x | 16.0x | 7.5x | 10.2x | 5.9x | 7.9x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 47.3x | 19.8x | 75.1x | 19.7x | -28.7x | 25.0x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.9x | 7.5x | 16.0x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.9x | 6.0x | 9.5x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.7x | 9.2x | 9.6x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 573 | 573 | 573 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,987 | 5,249 | 5,512 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (299) | (299) | (299) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 4,688 | 4,951 | 5,213 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 175.2 | 175.2 | 175.2 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 26.76 | 28.26 | 29.75 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 26.76 | 28.26 | 29.75 | 24.07 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 11.2% | 17.4% | 23.6% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | MRTN | LSTR | WERN | JBHT | HTLD | SNDR | |
Enterprise Value | 1,010 | 4,466 | 2,361 | 16,089 | 866 | 4,516 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 40 | 473 | 52 | 43 | 24 | 154 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 124 | |
(-) Debt | (1) | (154) | (689) | (1,920) | (206) | (577) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (38) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 1,050 | 4,801 | 1,693 | 14,213 | 684 | 4,217 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 81.5 | 34.9 | 61.8 | 99.2 | 78.6 | 175.2 | |
Implied Stock Price | 12.88 | 137.39 | 27.42 | 143.28 | 8.71 | 24.07 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 12.88 | 137.39 | 27.42 | 143.28 | 8.71 | 24.07 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |