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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.5% - 9.5% | 10.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 10.2x - 12.2x | 11.2x |
| Fair Value | $26.20 - $41.64 | $33.78 |
| Upside | -46.6% - -15.2% | -31.2% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (USD in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Sep-24 | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 |
| Revenue | 1,797 | 1,846 | 1,918 | 1,999 | 2,130 | 2,217 |
| % Growth | -8.5% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 4.1% |
| EBITDA | 625 | 663 | 718 | 786 | 893 | 965 |
| % of Revenue | 34.8% | 35.9% | 37.4% | 39.3% | 41.9% | 43.5% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (USD in millions) | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | |
| EBITDA | 663 | 718 | 786 | 893 | 965 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (184) | (209) | (240) | (253) | (277) | |
| EBIT | 479 | 508 | 546 | 640 | 688 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (96) | (102) | (109) | (128) | (138) | |
| NOPAT | 366 | 383 | 407 | 437 | 512 | 550 |
| Capital Expenditures | (523) | (693) | (744) | (729) | (744) | (670) |
| NWC Investment | 16 | (5) | (7) | (8) | (13) | (8) |
| (+) D&A | 167 | 184 | 209 | 240 | 253 | 277 |
| Free Cash Flow | 26 | (130) | (135) | (60) | 9 | 149 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | NM | 1578% | |