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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 1.3% - 2.3% | 1.8% |
| Fair Value | $110.44 - $145.85 | $125.72 |
| Upside | -45.0% - -27.4% | -37.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (USD in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| Revenue | 1,670 | 2,115 | 2,665 | 3,394 | 4,107 | 4,975 | 6,398 | 7,666 | 9,028 | 10,156 | 10,918 | |
| % Growth | 28.8% | 26.7% | 26.0% | 27.3% | 21.0% | 21.1% | 28.6% | 19.8% | 17.8% | 12.5% | 7.5% | |
| EBITDA | -36 | 461 | 610 | 844 | 1,107 | 1,456 | 2,453 | 3,470 | 4,811 | 5,514 | 5,982 | |
| % of Revenue | -2.2% | 21.8% | 22.9% | 24.9% | 26.9% | 29.3% | 38.3% | 45.3% | 53.3% | 54.3% | 54.8% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (USD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 461 | 610 | 844 | 1,107 | 1,456 | 2,453 | 3,470 | 4,811 | 5,514 | 5,982 | 5,982 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (176) | (220) | (274) | (372) | (448) | (576) | (690) | (812) | (914) | (982) | (301) | |
| EBIT | 285 | 391 | 571 | 735 | 1,008 | 1,877 | 2,780 | 3,999 | 4,600 | 5,000 | 5,681 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (40) | (55) | (80) | (103) | (141) | (263) | (389) | (560) | (644) | (700) | (795) | |
| NOPAT | (120) | 245 | 336 | 491 | 632 | 867 | 1,615 | 2,391 | 3,439 | 3,956 | 4,300 | 4,886 |
| Capital Expenditures | (185) | (275) | (313) | (406) | (274) | (320) | (333) | (309) | (321) | (321) | (317) | (317) |
| NWC Investment | 55 | 65 | 81 | 107 | 104 | 127 | 208 | 186 | 199 | 165 | 111 | 28 |
| (+) D&A | 103 | 176 | 220 | 274 | 372 | 448 | 576 | 690 | 812 | 914 | 982 | 301 |
| Free Cash Flow | (147) | 211 | 323 | 465 | 835 | 1,122 | 2,065 | 2,957 | 4,130 | 4,714 | 5,077 | 4,898 |
| % Growth | NM | 53% | 44% | 80% | 34% | 84% | 43% | 40% | 14% | 8% | -4% | |