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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 13.5x - 15.0x | 14.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 10.1x - 11.2x | 10.6x |
| Fair Value | $44.49 - $50.81 | $47.65 |
| Upside | -13.1% - -0.8% | -7.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| ConocoPhillips | COP | NYSE:COP |
| Kinder Morgan, Inc. | KMI | NYSE:KMI |
| The Williams Companies, Inc. | WMB | NYSE:WMB |
| Antero Midstream Corporation | AM | NYSE:AM |
| Chevron Corporation | CVX | NYSE:CVX |
| MPLX LP | MPLX | NYSE:MPLX |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| COP | KMI | WMB | AM | CVX | MPLX | ||
| NYSE:COP | NYSE:KMI | NYSE:WMB | NYSE:AM | NYSE:CVX | NYSE:MPLX | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 14.6% | 2.4% | 7.2% | 11.8% | 17.3% | 6.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 4.0% | -1.5% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 13.1% | 6.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -1.8% | -0.6% | -11.5% | 5.6% | -14.9% | 5.5% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 22.5% | 26.9% | 31.6% | 55.9% | 9.8% | 39.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 28.4% | 27.8% | 42.4% | 55.6% | 13.8% | 40.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 26.0% | 28.8% | 31.4% | 56.1% | 11.9% | 40.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 26.1% | 27.5% | 31.0% | 56.5% | 11.1% | 40.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.05x | 5.85x | 9.22x | 9.74x | 1.17x | 5.99x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.7x | 13.8x | 17.9x | 13.2x | 5.9x | 11.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 7.9x | 21.3x | 29.7x | 17.2x | 10.6x | 14.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 7.9x | 17.2x | 29.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 11.3x | 13.0x | 14.3x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 13.5x | 14.2x | 15.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 4,572 | 4,572 | 4,572 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 61,888 | 65,145 | 68,402 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (15,860) | (15,860) | (15,860) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 46,028 | 49,285 | 52,542 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,020.8 | 1,020.8 | 1,020.8 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 45.09 | 48.28 | 51.47 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 45.09 | 48.28 | 51.47 | 51.22 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -12.0% | -5.7% | 0.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | COP | KMI | WMB | AM | CVX | MPLX | |
| Enterprise Value | 121,281 | 90,720 | 102,189 | 11,577 | 228,973 | 68,145 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 7,235 | 86 | 100 | 0 | 4,643 | 2,534 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 10,008 | 7,911 | 4,300 | 600 | 49,150 | 4,751 | |
| (-) Debt | (23,784) | (33,200) | (27,411) | (3,111) | (29,681) | (22,915) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (1,321) | (2,378) | 0 | (836) | (230) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | (35) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 114,740 | 64,196 | 76,765 | 9,067 | 252,249 | 52,285 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,262.4 | 2,222.1 | 1,221.0 | 479.2 | 1,746.4 | 1,020.8 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 90.89 | 28.89 | 62.87 | 18.92 | 144.44 | 51.22 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 90.89 | 28.89 | 62.87 | 18.92 | 144.44 | 51.22 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |