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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.5x - 8.3x | 7.9x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5.7x - 6.3x | 6.0x |
Fair Value | $35.51 - $40.34 | $37.92 |
Upside | -2.6% - 10.7% | 4.0% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | CF | NYSE:CF |
Nutrien Ltd. | NTR | NYSE:NTR |
ICL Group Ltd | ICL | NYSE:ICL |
Yara International ASA | YRAI.F | OTCPK:YRAI.F |
Methanex Corporation | MEOH | NasdaqGS:MEOH |
The Mosaic Company | MOS | NYSE:MOS |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
CF | NTR | ICL | YRAI.F | MEOH | MOS | ||
NYSE:CF | NYSE:NTR | NYSE:ICL | OTCPK:YRAI.F | NasdaqGS:MEOH | NYSE:MOS | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 7.9% | 4.6% | 2.2% | -2.8% | 12.3% | 5.8% | |
3Y CAGR | -4.8% | -11.4% | -8.3% | -15.8% | -11.7% | -20.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 4.5% | -12.2% | -8.4% | 28.1% | 59.0% | -5.7% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 46.4% | 21.8% | 23.7% | 14.3% | 16.1% | 21.2% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 47.2% | 19.0% | 21.6% | 8.4% | 14.1% | 17.1% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 44.6% | 18.0% | 18.7% | 11.1% | 17.8% | 15.8% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 45.4% | 17.5% | 18.4% | 11.7% | 21.8% | 17.4% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 3.32x | 1.76x | 1.66x | 0.96x | 1.37x | 1.34x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.3x | 10.1x | 9.0x | 8.2x | 6.3x | 7.7x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 10.7x | 18.1x | 14.8x | 16.3x | 9.1x | 18.9x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.3x | 8.2x | 10.1x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.0x | 5.8x | 11.0x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.5x | 7.9x | 8.3x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 1,931 | 1,931 | 1,931 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 14,427 | 15,186 | 15,946 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (3,292) | (3,292) | (3,292) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 11,135 | 11,895 | 12,654 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 317.2 | 317.2 | 317.2 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 35.10 | 37.50 | 39.89 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 35.10 | 37.50 | 39.89 | 36.45 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -3.7% | 2.9% | 9.4% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | CF | NTR | ICL | YRAI.F | MEOH | MOS | |
Enterprise Value | 20,290 | 43,081 | 11,397 | 12,929 | 4,933 | 14,855 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,406 | 895 | 433 | 326 | 1,087 | 259 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 33 | 495 | 0 | 150 | 98 | 1,418 | |
(-) Debt | (3,296) | (14,707) | (2,426) | (4,091) | (3,226) | (4,823) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (2,517) | (32) | (279) | (17) | (296) | (146) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 15,916 | 29,732 | 9,125 | 9,297 | 2,596 | 11,563 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 162.0 | 487.5 | 1,290.6 | 254.7 | 77.3 | 317.2 | |
Implied Stock Price | 98.24 | 60.99 | 7.07 | 36.50 | 33.58 | 36.45 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 98.24 | 60.99 | 7.07 | 36.50 | 33.58 | 36.45 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |