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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 11.3% - 10.3% | 10.8% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 2.1x - 2.3x | 2.2x |
Fair Value | $21.29 - $26.34 | $23.73 |
Upside | 15.2% - 42.5% | 28.4% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 695 | 770 | 806 | 823 | 839 | 856 | 873 | 891 | 909 | 927 | 945 |
% Growth | 0.4% | 10.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 89 | 104 | 117 | 124 | 127 | 129 | 132 | 134 | 137 | 140 | 143 |
% of Revenue | 12.8% | 13.6% | 14.5% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 15.1% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
EBITDA | 104 | 117 | 124 | 127 | 129 | 132 | 134 | 137 | 140 | 143 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (79) | (81) | (81) | (82) | (84) | (86) | (87) | (89) | (91) | (93) | |
EBIT | 26 | 36 | 44 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (8) | (11) | (13) | (13) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (15) | (15) | |
NOPAT | 15 | 18 | 25 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 34 | 35 |
Capital Expenditures | (79) | (80) | (53) | (71) | (72) | (73) | (72) | (72) | (73) | (72) | (72) |
NWC Investment | 0 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
(+) D&A | 68 | 79 | 81 | 81 | 82 | 84 | 86 | 87 | 89 | 91 | 93 |
Free Cash Flow | 4 | 27 | 58 | 43 | 43 | 44 | 48 | 50 | 52 | 55 | 58 |
% Growth | 117% | -26% | 2% | 2% | 9% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 4% |