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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.0% - 8.0% | 8.5% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 15.9x - 17.9x | 16.9x |
Fair Value | $38.16 - $43.76 | $40.87 |
Upside | 5.8% - 21.3% | 13.3% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 5,074 | 5,448 | 5,649 | 5,912 | 4,789 | 4,789 | 4,789 | 4,789 | 4,789 | 4,789 | 4,789 |
% Growth | -8.8% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 4.7% | -19.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EBITDA | 521 | 1,077 | 1,099 | 1,293 | 1,047 | 1,047 | 1,047 | 1,047 | 1,047 | 1,047 | 1,047 |
% of Revenue | 10.3% | 19.8% | 19.5% | 21.9% | 21.9% | 21.9% | 21.9% | 21.9% | 21.9% | 21.9% | 21.9% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 1,077 | 1,099 | 1,293 | 1,047 | 1,047 | 1,047 | 1,047 | 1,047 | 1,047 | 1,047 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (198) | (149) | (233) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | |
EBIT | 879 | 950 | 1,060 | 1,030 | 1,030 | 1,030 | 1,030 | 1,030 | 1,030 | 1,030 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (123) | (133) | (148) | (144) | (144) | (144) | (144) | (144) | (144) | (144) | |
NOPAT | 313 | 756 | 817 | 912 | 886 | 886 | 886 | 886 | 886 | 886 | 886 |
Capital Expenditures | (116) | (106) | (106) | (123) | (182) | (182) | (162) | (162) | (162) | (162) | (162) |
NWC Investment | 25 | (19) | (10) | (13) | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
(+) D&A | 157 | 198 | 149 | 233 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
Free Cash Flow | 379 | 829 | 850 | 1,008 | 778 | 721 | 741 | 741 | 741 | 741 | 741 |
% Growth | 119% | 2% | 19% | -23% | -7% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |