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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.9x - 8.7x | 8.3x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7.0x - 7.8x | 7.4x |
| Fair Value | $18.61 - $22.04 | $20.32 |
| Upside | -6.2% - 11.0% | 2.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Five Point Holdings, LLC | FPH | NYSE:FPH |
| Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. | HHH | NYSE:HHH |
| Douglas Elliman Inc. | DOUG | NYSE:DOUG |
| Star Holdings | STHO | NasdaqGM:STHO |
| Tejon Ranch Co. | TRC | NYSE:TRC |
| Forestar Group Inc. | FOR | NYSE:FOR |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| FPH | HHH | DOUG | STHO | TRC | FOR | ||
| NYSE:FPH | NYSE:HHH | NYSE:DOUG | NasdaqGM:STHO | NYSE:TRC | NYSE:FOR | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | 20.4% | NM- | NM- | NM- | 40.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 43.7% | 20.8% | NM- | NM- | NM- | 14.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 73.0% | 98.6% | 63.8% | 79.1% | -575.2% | -17.8% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 4.1% | 29.1% | 0.4% | -22.8% | 5.1% | 13.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 21.8% | 39.7% | -5.7% | -21.2% | 2.2% | 15.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 36.5% | 41.0% | -4.0% | -4.8% | -11.0% | 16.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 36.4% | 41.0% | -1.9% | -4.8% | -11.0% | 13.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 7.31x | 4.49x | 0.16x | 0.19x | 10.90x | 1.15x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 20.1x | 11.0x | -8.6x | -4.0x | -99.1x | 8.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 25.4x | 14.6x | -6.2x | -2.2x | -48.1x | 8.4x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -99.1x | -4.0x | 20.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.9x | 8.6x | 18.3x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.9x | 8.3x | 8.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 205 | 205 | 205 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,618 | 1,703 | 1,788 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (708) | (708) | (708) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 910 | 995 | 1,080 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 50.8 | 50.8 | 50.8 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 17.91 | 19.58 | 21.26 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 17.91 | 19.58 | 21.26 | 19.85 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -9.8% | -1.4% | 7.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | FPH | HHH | DOUG | STHO | TRC | FOR | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,763 | 7,896 | 171 | 26 | 457 | 1,717 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 528 | 596 | 147 | 35 | 54 | 174 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 143 | 179 | 0 | 265 | 29 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (600) | (5,133) | (156) | (218) | (67) | (881) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (1,465) | (66) | 0 | (21) | (15) | (1) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 369 | 3,472 | 161 | 87 | 457 | 1,009 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 69.9 | 50.0 | 88.6 | 13.3 | 26.9 | 50.8 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5.28 | 69.40 | 1.82 | 6.51 | 17.02 | 19.85 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.28 | 69.40 | 1.82 | 6.51 | 17.02 | 19.85 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |