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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 39.3x - 43.4x | 41.4x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 27.2x - 30.0x | 28.6x |
| Fair Value | $1,287 - $1,432 | $1,360 |
| Upside | -38.2% - -31.1% | -34.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Riskified Ltd. | RSKD | NYSE:RSKD |
| Adobe Inc. | ADBE | NasdaqGS:ADBE |
| nCino, Inc. | NCNO | NasdaqGS:NCNO |
| NCR Voyix Corporation | VYX | NYSE:VYX |
| Oracle Corporation | ORCL | NYSE:ORCL |
| Fair Isaac Corporation | FICO | NYSE:FICO |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| RSKD | ADBE | NCNO | VYX | ORCL | FICO | ||
| NYSE:RSKD | NasdaqGS:ADBE | NasdaqGS:NCNO | NYSE:VYX | NYSE:ORCL | NYSE:FICO | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | 19.1% | NM- | -32.7% | 2.4% | 23.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 10.5% | NM- | -4.9% | 0.2% | 21.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 37.9% | 15.8% | 83.5% | 7200.0% | 14.6% | 18.0% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -24.1% | 34.9% | -15.1% | 3.7% | 33.6% | 37.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -25.8% | 34.3% | -7.0% | 0.0% | 27.4% | 42.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -14.6% | 36.4% | -1.0% | 2.6% | 29.8% | 42.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -14.6% | 36.6% | -1.0% | 2.6% | 31.4% | 44.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.23x | 7.37x | 4.95x | 0.76x | 9.07x | 28.56x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -9.1x | 18.7x | 86.8x | 9.3x | 22.1x | 63.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -8.4x | 20.1x | -484.8x | 29.4x | 28.9x | 64.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -484.8x | 20.1x | 29.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 23.1x | 38.4x | 70.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 39.3x | 41.4x | 43.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 813 | 813 | 813 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 31,945 | 33,626 | 35,308 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,402) | (2,402) | (2,402) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 29,543 | 31,224 | 32,905 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 24.3 | 24.3 | 24.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1,213.66 | 1,282.73 | 1,351.81 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1,213.66 | 1,282.73 | 1,351.81 | 2,080.41 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -41.7% | -38.3% | -35.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | RSKD | ADBE | NCNO | VYX | ORCL | FICO | |
| Enterprise Value | 405 | 161,500 | 2,678 | 2,166 | 508,528 | 53,043 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 376 | 7,436 | 121 | 724 | 17,823 | 147 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 35 | 10 | 0 | 2,000 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (28) | (6,563) | (237) | (1,400) | (109,176) | (2,549) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (8) | 2 | (531) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | (276) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 753 | 162,408 | 2,564 | 1,216 | 418,644 | 50,641 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 161.7 | 426.2 | 115.2 | 138.2 | 2,804.2 | 24.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 4.66 | 381.06 | 22.25 | 8.80 | 149.29 | 2,080.41 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 4.66 | 381.06 | 22.25 | 8.80 | 149.29 | 2,080.41 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |